怎样拯救欧元?

纽约——有时候事情看上去并不会变得很糟,但实际上却并非如此。即就是欧元区一些看似“负责”的成员国也将面临更高的利率。而大西洋两岸的欧美经济学家们现在讨论的已经不是欧元能否生存下来的问题,而是如何确保欧元体系的崩溃只带来最小的动荡。

尽管欧洲各国领导致力于挽救欧元,但在维系欧元运作的必要措施方面,各国领导对此的认识缺陷却逐渐暴露出来。欧元体系建立伊始,主流观点认为维系欧元体系的运作只需在财政方面进行约束,即,各成员国的财政赤字或公共债务应与各国国内生产总值相适应。经济危机前,爱尔兰和西班牙仍有预算结余,并保持较低的债务值。然而,很快一切都化为乌有,两国都陷入财政赤字,债台高筑。所以,当今欧洲各国领导都指出控制各成员国的经常项目赤字才是当务之急。

如果真是这样,那么随着经济危机的蔓延,美国这个常年保持经常项目赤字的国家却成了全球投资者的避风港,就显得不合常理了。而欧盟将如何分辨政府为创造有利投资环境以及增加外国直接投资而造成的“良性”经常性项目赤字和“不良”经常性项目赤字呢?要想避免“不良”经常性项目赤字,那么对于私营部门的干预则应该远远大于欧元区建立时颇受欢迎的新自由主义以及单一市场原则所倡导的程度。

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