À quoi pensent les futurs propriétaires ?

La flambée de l'immobilier touche de nombreux endroits du monde depuis la fin des années 1990. Comme je le disais l'an dernier, dans la deuxième édition de mon livre Irrational Exuberance , ce boom a son origine dans l'investissement spéculatif par des acheteurs immobiliers ordinaires, et il est alimenté en grande partie par la perception mondiale que le capitalisme a triomphé et que chacun doit se débrouiller par soi-même en devenant propriétaire. Convaincus que la propriété privée est devenu un élément essentiel d'une vie à la page, les acheteurs font grimper le prix des logements.

En outre, la crainte de devoir devenir propriétaire avant qu'il ne soit trop tard pousse souvent les gens à faire grimper les prix de l'immobilier encore plus rapidement aujourd'hui. C'est ce qui semble se produire pour la psychologie des marchés en Chine et en Inde, où l'augmentation rapide des revenus et les nouveaux riches vont certainement mettre la pression sur les marchés des terrains, de l'immobilier et des matériaux de construction. Cela fait des années que les grandes villes de ces pays connaissent une flambée de l'immobilier. En Chine, malgré certains signes de faiblesse – le marché de Shanghai est à la baisse, par exemple – la hausse des prix reste robuste dans la plupart du pays.

Mais le boom généré par de telles idées ne peut se poursuivre éternellement, car les prix ne peuvent pas toujours augmenter et les signes annonciateurs d'un atterrissage forcé sont déjà visibles. Aux États-unis, les journaux et les magazines annoncent à grands cris que la flambée de l'immobilier qui dure depuis une dizaine d'années est peut-être en bout de course, et que la bulle pourrait bien exploser. La psychologie a soudain changé d'orientation, provoquant une peur très répandue de soudaines baisses des prix de l'immobilier américain.

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