购房者在想什么?

从20世纪90年代末开始,世界很多地方的住宅市场都一派繁荣。正如去年我在拙作《非理性繁荣》第二版中所提到的那样,这种繁荣的根源在于普通购房者的投机性买入,而认为资本主义已经在全球范围内获胜,所有人都必须购进财产的普遍看法在很大程度上起了推波助澜的作用。购房者坚信私有制已经成为明智生活不可或缺的组成部分,他们相互竞价,房价也跟着水涨船高。

不仅如此,在无论如何要赶上这波繁荣浪潮,否则将追悔莫及的恐惧驱使下,人们更加不遗余力的抬高房价。中国和印度无疑受到这种市场心理的左右,人们普遍认为那里快速增长的收入和飞黄腾达的新贵给土地、房地产和建筑材料市场带来了很大压力。房地产繁荣已经在这些国家的主要城市上演了数年之久。尽管中国的房地产市场已经出现了转弱的迹象¾比如上海的房价就在下跌¾但绝大多数城市的房价上涨仍然风头正劲。

但这种心理所造就的繁荣不可能永远继续下去,因为价格不可能永远上涨,而且已经出现了硬着陆的迹象。过去几个月来,美国的报纸和杂志一直在鼓吹长达10年之久的房价上涨也许即将结束,泡沫的破灭也许就在眼前。心理预期在眨眼之间发生了改变,人们普遍对美国房价骤跌充满了恐惧。

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