¿Qué pasa con el mundo?

Mientras las primarias de Estados Unidos avanzan más allá de Iowa y New Hampshire, es sencillamente imposible predecir quiénes serán los candidatos demócrata y republicano, mucho menos quién se convertirá en el 44º presidente de Estados Unidos. Pero no es demasiado pronto para abordar la cuestión de qué efecto está teniendo la política exterior norteamericana en la campaña y qué revela sobre cómo ven el mundo los norteamericanos.

Para sorpresa de muchos observadores experimentados, la política exterior sólo tiene un impacto moderado en los votantes. Esto es inesperado, porque hace apenas seis meses la guerra en Irak dominaba el paisaje político. Si bien Irak sigue importándoles mucho a los norteamericanos, su importancia a la hora de determinar cómo votan ha disminuido, en parte porque las bajas norteamericanas allí se están reduciendo marcadamente mientras que la situación de seguridad parece mejorar gradualmente. En consecuencia, existe una presión pública considerablemente menor para hacer algo totalmente diferente.

La política exterior también se ha vuelto menos saliente que hace apenas unos meses ya que la posibilidad de una guerra entre Estados Unidos e Irán ha disminuido, tras la Estimación de Inteligencia Nacional recientemente publicada sobre el programa nuclear iraní. La evaluación de la comunidad de inteligencia de Estados Unidos de que Irán ha suspendido su programa de desarrollo de armas nucleares -y, más importante aún, que su capacidad de enriquecimiento de uranio en gran escala probablemente esté a años de distancia- pospone el día en que un presidente norteamericano tenga que decidir entre convivir con un Irán nuclear o atacarlo.

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