把世界晾在一边了吗?

尽管美国已经完成了在艾奥瓦州和新罕布尔什州的预选,但是现在还很难预测谁将被民主党和共和党提名为候选人,更别说谁将成为美国的第44任总统了。但是现在来讨论美国的外交政策将对竞选活动产生怎样的影响以及它显示了美国人是如何看待世界的问题却并不嫌早。

令许多老资格的观察家感到惊讶的是,外交政策只对选民产生了很小的影响。这是大家所没有预料到的,因为仅仅是在六个月前关于在伊拉克的战争的争论还一直是政治上的热点。尽管伊拉克问题对于美国人来说依然还是一个重要问题,它在决定他们把票投给谁的问题上的重要性却大大减弱了,这部分是因为美国在那儿的伤亡情况随着安全状况的逐步好转已经大大减少了。其结果是,公众要求做出一些引人注目的不同的举动的压力大大减弱了。

外交政策问题没有几个月以前那么突出的另一个原因是随着国家情报评估机构最近有关伊朗核计划报告的出台,美国和伊朗爆发战争的可能性已经减少了。根据美国情报部门的判断,伊朗已经搁置了它的核武器开发计划,并且,更重要的是,它大规模浓缩铀的能力似乎还要花很多年才能实现,这也使得某位美国总统必须对与一个拥有核武器的伊朗相处还是发起攻击做出决定的日期被大大延后了。

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