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Economics

هل تغير العقوبات الغربية النظام المالي العالمي؟

Apr 28, 2022 Howard Davies

لندن ــ في مواجهة أهوال الغزو الذي تشنه روسيا في أوكرانيا، ومع إدراك مدة محدودية الخيارات العسكرية المتاحة لها، كان من المفهوم أن تلجأ الحكومات الغربية إلى توظيف ترساناتها الاقتصادية والمالية. فُـرِضَت مثل هذه العقوبات على الدول الضالة المنحرفة من قبل، بدرجات متفاوتة من النجاح، ولكن ليس بأي درجة من النجاح الذي حققته العقوبات المفروضة على روسيا الآن.

من أبرز هذه العقوبات استيلاء الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها على قدر كبير من احتياطيات البنك المركزي الروسي من النقد الأجنبي، ومنع وصول بعض البنوك الروسية إلى نظام الرسائل المالية للمعاملات الدولية سويفت SWIFT. لقد تعلم العالم تعبيرا جديدا ــ "الحرمان من سويفت" ــ وجرى استخدام النظام المالي كسلاح على نحو غير مسبوق.

من السابق للأوان تقييم تأثير العقوبات المفروضة على روسيا؛ فلا يوجد حتى الآن ما يشير إلى حدوث تأثير حاسم على نظام الرئيس فلاديمير بوتن أو سياساته. لكن الضرر الذي سيلحق بالاقتصاد الروسي في الأمد البعيد سيكون كبيرا في الأرجح.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

vic lai Apr 28, 2022

Whether the western sanctions will change the global financial system in the future, depends both on the current intention (or ambition) of the Russian and Chinese top leaders and on their knowledge about the nature of a global internationalized currency.
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If only little is being done, like Russia's current insistence on the use of ruble alone as both the unit of account and the medium of exchange for the natural gas (and other resource) transaction between the EU and Russia, the global financial system won't be much affected.
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If much more are being done, like Russia's (and China's) developing much further her country's central government treasury market, FX market, commodity market, stock market, and money market (including the forward market, repo market, derivative market), improving the banking system, and strengthening their domestic legal system, thereby enabling the Russian ruble to become also a reliable store of value and standard for deferred payment in international interactions, inducing the EU countries and many other foreign countries to accumulate rubles as part of the FX reserves of their central banks in the coming years, in direct competition with the US dollar, then the future global financial system will be much affected, and may transform from Bretton woods II to BW III much more easily in the coming decades.
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Today, contrary to popular opinion, too much credit has been given to the chairperson of Russia's central bank, simply because, when the internationalization of the ruble is concerned, "so little" has been done by her (and her boss) so far.
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- vic lai Apr 29, 2022
  
  I think, CBDC digital ruble, now being planned by the Bank of Russia (while banning cryptocurrencies in Russia at the same time), just caters to the unit of account cum medium of exchange function of the ruble as one of the world's potential international currencies, like China's own CBDC digital yuan does.
  If no new innovations such as digital ruble treasury bills or bonds or something similar are considered and propagated by the BOR at the same time, the other arguably even more important aspect of an important international currency ------- the store of value cum standard for deferred payment function ------ is still missing, meaning that the vitally important job of ruble internationalization is only half done, and the transition from BW II to BW III of the global monetary system will be further delayed or even impossible.
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  It's even better if Russia could, like today's US, has balance-of-payment deficits year-in and year-out, with little or no capital control, so that the international environment for the ruble acting as one of the world's important reserve currencies can be realized.
  Same for China's yuan.
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  - vic lai Apr 30, 2022
    
    Why does the EU "foolishly" insist on keeping sanctioning Russia, when she is fully aware that doing so will significantly bid up the energy and food prices in western Europe ?
    Why doesn't Russia finish the war in a short period of time but instead chooses to prolong it ?
    America seems to be standing to gain from this prolonged military conflict.
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    The longer the war lasts, the longer and more serious is the inflationary pressure in America (and elsewhere), thereby forcing the US Fed, or giving the Fed a legitimate excuse, to "suicidally" prop up the interest rates in the country, and so popping the country's bond-stock-housing market bubbles all at the same time, giving rise to another prolonged balance-sheet economic recession and hence secular stagnation in America as a result.
    Russia's demand for the EU to pay in rubles when the EU buys natural gas from Russia also facilitates the transition of the global monetary system from BW II to BW III, when many other similar resource-exporting countries will require their importing countries to also pay in their own currencies, and when more and more effective OPEC+-like cartels will be formed and enforced in the future.
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    It's said on the internet that the current Ukraine War has been a cryptic attempt by both Russia and the EU to try to dethrone the US Dollar in the global monetary system !
    America beware.
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هل تغير العقوبات الغربية النظام المالي العالمي؟

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