La época de la represión financiera

TILBURG – Tras su reelección, el presidente de los EE.UU. Barack Obama casi inmediatamente dirigió su atención a refrenar la creciente deuda nacional estadounidense. De hecho, casi todos los países occidentales están aplicando políticas destinadas a reducir el volumen de la deuda pública, o al menos detener el crecimiento del mismo.

En su muy citado artículo (“Growth in a Time of Debt,”Kenneth Rogoff  “Crecimiento en tiempos de deuda”) Kenneth Rogoff y Carmen Reinhart sostienen que cuando la deuda pública supera el 90% del PIB, los países sufren un crecimiento económico más lento. La deuda nacional de muchos países occidentales ahora se encuentra peligrosamente cerca, y en algunos casos supera, este umbral crítico.

En efecto, según la OCDE (according to the OECD), a finales de este año, el ratio entre la deuda nacional de Estados Unidos/PIB se elevará a 108,6%. La deuda pública de la eurozona se sitúa en el 99,1% del PIB, liderada por Francia, donde se espera que llegue al 105,5%, y el Reino Unido, donde se prevé alcanzará el 104,2%. Incluso en la muy disciplinada Alemania se espera que finalice el año cerca del umbral del 90%, en un 88,5%.

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