金融抑制时代

蒂尔堡—美国总统奥巴马获得连任后,几乎立刻将注意力转向了控制美国节节攀升的国民债务的问题。事实上,几乎所有西方国家都在实施旨在减少公债规模的政策,至少不能再让公债继续上升。

在他们广为引用的《债务时代的增长》(Growth in a Time of Debt)中,肯尼斯·罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)指出,当政府债务突破GDP的90%时,国家就会遭受经济增长减速。许多西方国家的国民债务距离这一门槛已相当接近,不少国家更是已经超出。

事实上,根据经合组织的数据,到今年年底,美国国民债务/GDP比率将攀升至108.6%。欧元区公债水平将达到GDP的99.1%,其中法国的公债/GDP比率将达到105.55。英国的公债/GDP比率将为104.2%。即使最守纪律的德国预计也将逼近90%的门槛,达到88.5%。

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