Russia's President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump shake hands

Кризис уверенности на Западе

Apr 19, 2018 Carl Bildt

СТОКГОЛЬМ – В эпоху, которую определяют неистовство президента США Дональда Трампа, ревизионизм президента России Владимира Путина и несдерживаемые амбиции председателя КНР Си Цзиньпина, международный порядок становится всё более беспорядочным, нефункциональным и даже опасным. Как мы дошли до такого положения? И как мы можем выйти из него?

Вплоть до недавнего времени эпоха, последовавшая за Второй мировой войной, была периодом благотворного либерального интернационализма. Послевоенный порядок начал обретать форму ещё в 1941 году, когда президент США Франклин Рузвельт и премьер-министр Британии Уинстон Черчилль составили проект «Атлантической хартии» на борту корабля, бросившего якорь в канадской бухте Пласеншиа-Бэй. Гитлер побеждал на полях сражений в Европе, но Черчилль и Рузвельт уже были решительно настроены не только разгромить нацизм, но и заложить фундамент будущего мира и демократии.

Успех превысил, наверное, любые их представления о возможном. Вслед за «Атлантической хартией» появились ООН, институты Бреттон-Вудса, глобальная торговая система, «Всеобщая декларация прав человека» и многое другое. Послевоенные десятилетия деколонизации привели к возникновению множества новых стран, а бывшие враги объединились в рамках новых альянсов и всеобъемлющей интеграционной структуры.

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Carl Bildt

Writing for PS since 2009
101 Commentaries

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to 2014 and prime minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Russia’s Imperial Instinct Politics
Yuri Smityuk/Getty Images

Russia’s Imperial Instinct

Carl Bildt concludes that the country's expansionism has historically thrived on Western division.

14
Restoring Faith in Globalization Politics
Ni Qin/Getty Images

Restoring Faith in Globalization

Carl Bildt issues a reminder that free trade has delivered unprecedented progress in recent decades.

43
The Brexit Tragicomedy Politics
Barcroft Media/Getty Images

The Brexit Tragicomedy

Harold James
With the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union looming on the horizon, party politics has become increasingly dysfunctional and divisive. But while Brexit will be bad for the EU, and even more so for the UK, it could also serve as a cautionary tale for other countries in need of a domestic political realignment.
argues that British politics have become so dysfunctional that a major partisan realignment is in the offing.

14
Securing the Digital Transition Politics
Andrew Brookes/Getty Images

Securing the Digital Transition

Carl Bildt
Within a few decades, the Internet has transformed the global economy and rendered the old Westphalian order increasingly obsolete. But without a new governance framework to manage cyber threats and abuses, what has been a boon to globalization could become its undoing.
worries that advances in cyberspace governance are not keeping pace with online crime and other abuses.

3
South Korea and the End of US Credibility Politics
JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

South Korea and the End of US Credibility

Anne O. Krueger worries about the long-term effects of the Trump administration's bad-faith approach to the KORUS trade deal.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 22 Comments on this article

Peter Schaeffer Jun 22, 2018

The rising powers of the world (China, India, Russia, etc.) are all illiberal. Whether they are successful because of illiberalism or in spite of it, doesn't matter. They are illiberal. They will sway much of the for the next 100 years simply by virtue of weight.

The declining West shows that liberalism is a failed path. The U.S. is dramatically more "liberal" than it was one or two generations ago... and dramatically less successful. Sure the elites are richer than ever. However, life for ordinary Americans has declined. The fruits of liberalism are bitter. A similar analysis applies to the UK. Sure the City is richer than ever. How about the rest of England? Not so much.

Of course, we don't have to go abroad to see liberalism failing. Sweden is a case study in failed liberalism. Mass immigration has turned a successful country into crime-ridden one. The Swedish people are (predictably) revolting. Back in 2003, the people of Sweden revolted against Bildt and friends and stopped the Euro. Of course, they were right. Sweden escaped from the Euro nightmare only by virtue of the intelligence of its own citizens.
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Peter Schaeffer Jun 21, 2018

It turns out... That Bildt and friends have a problem with something called "truth"

"Similarly, in an op-ed for the Washington Post, former Prime Minister Carl Bildt described the country’s immigration policy as a success story. He did not elaborate on violent crime. After repeated attacks against Jewish institutions in December — including the firebombing of a synagogue in Gothenburg — Bildt took to the same paper to claim that anti-Semitism is not a major problem in Sweden."

and

"In March, Labor Market Minister Ylva Johansson appeared on the BBC, where she claimed that the number of reported rapes and sexual harassment cases “is going down and going down and going down.” In fact, the opposite is true, which Johansson later admitted in an apology."
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Alex Tuz Apr 23, 2018

The world will applaud when the Anglo-Saxon totalitarism will be supplanted by multilateralism. Enough of unconstrained power abuse.
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Brett Harris Apr 23, 2018

The era of benevolent liberal internationalism also lead to the US overthrowing over 100 governments, the US military interventions cost over $30 million civilian lives, and more recently, the training and funding of jihadists by the US and its allies has left the Middle East in ruins. - great job O benevolent ones!
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Atul Mamtora Apr 23, 2018

Despite convincing point made by author,There are very good chances that USA can come back roaring after three years.However you view, it reality that nearly half of the world wealth creation is occurring in the old euro/ American sphere.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 23, 2018

Carl Bildt worries that Western democracies are plunging into a disorder created by Trump, staged by Putin and Xi Jinping. Trump has alienated America’s allies with his bellicose blusters and disastrous foreign policy, paying merely “lip service to the idea of a global order,” which is based on the Atlantic Charter – a joint declaration – released by President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill in 1941.
Despite its flaws and imperfections, as well as its failure to tackle all problems and crises, the current global order had secured the longest period of great power peace in modern history. “There were no major wars between superpowers, global trade expanded and drove economic growth, poverty was more than halved, and rapid advances in science and technology delivered benefits to every corner of the world.”
However Trump has a 30-year track record of opposing key elements of the global order. The irony is that the more he tries to assert US leadership, the less he is being taken seriously. He has no doubt ceded global leadership to an increasingly assertive Xi Jinping, with China benefiting from the open global economy and seeking to drive the US out of East Asia. Trump turns a blind eye to an aggressive and “rule-breaking” Russia under Putin, who wants to disrupt the order, because he believes it poses a direct threat to his country.
The author says the second half of the 20th century saw an era of “benevolent liberal internalism”. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and China’s economic rise, “marked the start of a quarter-century of truly remarkable global progress....judging by standard economic, political, and social indicators, it might well have been the best quarter-century in human history.” Now this stablility and relative prosperity – revolving around international institutions, an open global economy, and multilateralism – hangs by a thread, which risks being cut by the three leaders.
The year 2016 went down in history as an annus horribilis, which witnessed “the politics of identity and fear”. The absence of “idealism and hope” on both sides of the Atlantic prompted British voters to leave the EU and Americans to vote for Trump. Today, the state of affairs in the UK and the US is “tragic to behold.” The June 2016 Brexit vote had plunged the UK into political chaos, and the “parochial bickering” consumes much of the nation’s time and resources.
Trump was so inexperienced and ignorant that he turned to a number of generals and CEOs for advice and guidance. Many of the “adults in the room” had resigned within his first year in office, because they had a hard time to contain his worst impulses and to persuade him to stick to America’s foreign policy best possible. Trump continues to tweet irresponsibly and creates confusion. His tweets leave his stuff frustrated, forcing them to fill in details or reinterprete them.
Putin and Xi are patient and biding their time, waiting for Trump to weaken his country further. Both have domestic politics to worry about – Xi has become China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, seeking to overthrow the global order while pretending to protect it. Trump’s buffoonery enables Xi to portray himself as the champion of free trade. After Trump’s withdrawal from TPP, Xi let the Asian countries know that China is reliable and here to stay while the US is in decline and cannot be trusted.
Putin, instead of forging political reforms to boost growth, knows that a paralysed West would make his Russia appear strong. He interfered in US elections on behalf of the Republicans, helped Trump elected and got away with impunity. He will try again, seeking to strengthen the pro-Russia groups, like the Breitbart and America First Republicans. He will also continue to weaken the EU, seeing it as part of the US-led global order that seeks to topple him – a danger much more imminent than Nato troops or military interventions. The rise of populist parties across Europe suits him well, because they attack liberal values and free press.
Critics say, as Trump is determined to find ways to disrupt and upend world affairs on a whim, he, as president is invested with enormous power. What is a paradox is that while he gains more control over his administration, by surrounding himself with yes men, he will become weaker on the world stage. This does not bode well for America’s strength to uphold the current world order.
The author says, “the loser would undoubtedly be the wider West, meaning not just Europe but countries like India, which are “committed to liberal democracy, economic openness, and the values underpinning that miraculous quarter-century after the Cold War.” Despite this doom and gloom, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Trump’s tenure is limited, and his political future is uncertain. The US will survive a Trump presidency. The question is whether China and Russia will descend into chaos, should Putin and Xi leave – voluntarily or involuntarily – one day.
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Richard Seifman Apr 22, 2018

In the last century, the West, especially the United States and United Kingdom, shaped global health institutions, the common response, and financial support. Health is now central to all, true with respect to trade in health goods and services, or containing possible pandemics. The West is rapidly squandering its unquestioned twentieth century leadership as it diminishes investment in the international health agenda whilst China and others emerge to take up the slack. The United States, in particular, needs to acknowledge this changing health geopolitical structure and ask others to join it in a “Bretton Woods-like Conference on Global Health”. It would be a win-win for all.
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Richard Seifman Apr 22, 2018

In the last century, the West, especially the United States and United Kingdom, shaped global health institutions, the common response, and financial support. Health is now central to all, true with respect to trade in health goods and services, or containing possible pandemics. The West is rapidly squandering its unquestioned twentieth century leadership as it diminishes investment in the international health agenda whilst China and others emerge to take up the slack. The United States, in particular, needs to acknowledge this changing health geopolitical structure and ask others to join it in a “Bretton Woods-like Conference on Global Health”. It would be a win-win for all.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Henk Crop Apr 22, 2018

The author observes that politics of hope and idealism have been replaced by politics of identity and fear. He sums up many causes except the most important ones, these are: the population explosions in Africa / the Middle East and the Islamisation of Europe.
This is all happening, while the European Elite are lead by the belief that saving the world and appeasing to Islam is more important than protecting their own people and culture.
Mr. Bildt his own country Sweden has demonstrated how they damaged their once peaceful and save nation. See Politico of this week.
- Peter Schaeffer Jun 21, 2018
  
  Politco EU has a decent article on what Sweden has become. Quotes
  
  "Sweden’s violent reality is undoing a peaceful self-image - Shootings have become so common that they don’t make top headlines anymore."
  
  "In a period of two weeks earlier this year, five explosions took place in the country. It’s not unusual these days — Swedes have grown accustomed to headlines of violent crime, witness intimidation and gangland executions."
  
  "Gang-related gun murders, now mainly a phenomenon among men with immigrant backgrounds in the country’s parallel societies, increased from 4 per year in the early 1990s to around 40 last year. "
  
  "Shootings in the country have become so common that they don’t make top headlines anymore, unless they are spectacular or lead to fatalities. News of attacks are quickly replaced with headlines about sports events and celebrities, as readers have become desensitized to the violence. A generation ago, bombings against the police and riots were extremely rare events. Today, reading about such incidents is considered part of daily life."
  
  "The rising levels of violence have not gone unnoticed by Sweden’s Scandinavian neighbors. Norwegians commonly use the phrase “Swedish conditions” to describe crime and social unrest. The view from Denmark was made clear when former President of NATO and Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in an interview on Swedish TV: “I often use Sweden as a deterring example.”"
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- Henk Crop Apr 22, 2018
  
  Although mr. Bidt's idealism is sympathetic, it is the lack of realism that is worry some. What difference could Sweden or the EU make in: Africa witth a population growth from 1250 to 2500 million in 2050, in Pakistan 143 to 349 million, in Banglahdesh 138 to 255 million.
  The latter are Islamic countries with a culture which differs from western culture.
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Cary Fraser Apr 22, 2018

The intellectual provincialism that overtook the Anglo-American alliance in the Reagan - Thatcher era has had long-term consequences. The European Community project, the American failure in Vietnam, and the strategic transformation of the Middle East by the oil crises of the 1970s had exposed the limits of Anglo-American policies and influence over the international order. The end of the Cold War revealed the American hubris about their capacity to reshape the international system - including the domestic politics of Russia and Eastern Europe.
The international system is being reshaped by the dynamism of Asia and both Washington and London lack the sophistication of mind and the diplomatic deftness that is required to deal with a multi-polar world.
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Don Ramble Apr 21, 2018

The UK has squandered what was left of it’s influence by pandering to the mob. A sorry situation for it to find itself in.
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Godfree Roberts Apr 19, 2018

"it would be a fateful mistake to abandon the ideas and institutions that delivered prosperity and stability in previous decades."

Put briefly, "we should continue doing the things that brought Carl Bildt to power, even though it has stopped working and we are in decline"
- Lasse Laine Apr 23, 2018
  
  It seems that Godfree Roberts don't know that Swedish elites have stopped the further developement of presented ideas/theories for the new paradigm of science. Neither had they- included Carl Bildt- commented my more peaceful proposal for solving Kosovo- crises with more long-term solutions..because put forward with a man with "immigrant status" in the Swedish democracy.. Proposal for a new, global base- the new kind of philosophy uniting West and East and transferring Bildt's old-fashioned philosophy (materialism contra idealism) seems to have gone with these power people 's blind faith on themselves and the western idealism? Is the window now closed for "The Real Change"- my intention to create a new, uniting base to the new kind of global consciousness, thanks to him and his likes? (see even Johan Stavers critical comment below).
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Kien Choong Apr 19, 2018

In fairness to China, it has by and large supported the global order. Perhaps China has a somewhat different understanding to the Western alliance of what the exact requirements of the global order is, but the general point is that China supports global order (vs anarchy).

The global order needs to serve the interests of all countries, especially the poor and developing countries. In practice, the "global order" seems to serve the interests of powerful countries. It is right that emerging countries (including China) have a say on how the global order should operate.

There are 3 key challenges for our generation: (i) climate change, (ii) inclusive & sustainable growth (both within and across nations), and (iii) the refugee crisis. The global order ought to be reviewed in this light.
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jagjeet sinha Apr 19, 2018

Carl Bildt is usually very astute.
Herein whilst observations are accurate, the aplomb in analysis is amiss.
Brexit was caused. Democratically the country voted to leave European Union.
Without arguing for removal of the root cause, Bildt recommends remedies.
Both America and Britain underwriting 1945 - 2015, have lost the agenda.
Europe is again to blame - specifically Brussels and European Union.
In their TWIN desire to replace The Anglosphere Twins.
France and Germany have bitten more than they can chew.
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Cesar Gonzalez Apr 19, 2018

Could Russia and Israel be the new global deals brokers. Any comments on Iran and Saudi becoming non beligerant with Israel.
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Кризис уверенности на Западе

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Russia’s Imperial Instinct

Restoring Faith in Globalization

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