Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj (L) and his Macedonian counterpart Zoran Zaev

Politics

إكمال المهمة المطلوب تنفيذها في غرب البلقان

Jan 31, 2018 Guy Verhofstadt

بروكسل - عقد ممثلو صربيا وكوسوفو في 16 يناير / كانون الثاني في بروكسل اجتماعا لإجراء محادثات حول تطبيع العلاقات بينهما. لكن في نفس اليوم، تم قتل زعيم الأقلية الصربي أوليفر إيفانوفيتش في كوسوفو اٍثر تعرضه لإطلاق نار أمام مكتب حزبه في مدينة ميتروفيتشا شمال البلاد، مما أدى إلى إلغاء المحادثات.

ومنذ نهاية حرب كوسوفو في عام 1999، أحرزت منطقة البلقان الغربية تقدما كبيرا في مواجهة القوى القومية والرجعية التي أدت إلى نشوب هذا الصراع العرقي الوحشي. لكن اغتيال ايفانوفيتش، الذي تم على الأرجح على أيدي العصابات الإجرامية التي سمح لها بالازدهار في شمال كوسوفو، يهدد الآن بإشعال الأزمة بين صربيا وكوسوفو التي لا تزال قائمة. فقد خرجت الأشباح القومية في المنطقة من سباتها.

وتواجه بلدان البلقان الغربية العديد من التحديات الأخرى. ويرجع انتشار الفساد إلى شبكات الجريمة المنظمة التي نشأت عن الجهاز الأمني الشيوعي. إن تأثير الولايات المتحدة في المنطقة آخذ في الانخفاض، بالرغم من موقف روسيا الانتقامي. وبالنسبة لمعظم بلدان المنطقة، فإن الانضمام إلى الاتحاد الأوروبي ليس مؤكدا بعد.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 Comments on this article

Christine Constable Feb 9, 2018

Sadly forcing the balkans into the EU is likely to be the pin in the hand grenade that destroys the whole structure of EU stability this expansion mania needs to come to an end. Listen to western Europe they don't wan more enlargement or more lame ducks.
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M M Feb 4, 2018

You want a solution for "Macedonia", it should be unified with Greece. The dysfunctional EU does not need another dysfunctional state to overburden with debt. Adding another dysfunctional state goes against the "Grand Unification" project or ideal of the EU establishment. The EU energy is better spent on unifying Cyprus (which will never happen). If it was not for the defunct German armouries that were sold to Greece, may be the Greek army would have resolved this conflict long ago.
- Steve Hurst Feb 5, 2018
  
  Arrhichion
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M M Feb 4, 2018

The EU establishment must keep its hands, feets and minds off the Balkans. There isn't a single person or being in the EU Institutions that is capable of doing or accepting anything constructive. The EU is playing with fire with the Macedonia issue. Putting pressure and black-mailing the latest Greek Traitor can only ignite an all out war, yet again, originating from the East. The events and streets demonstrations that have and are taking place in Greece and in many European capitals and US cities say it all. If the EU / US establishments do not listen to the voices of the people, which they won't, they will have only themselves to blame. History can only repeat itself.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 1, 2018

Guy Verhofstadt urges the EU to "keep the Western Balkans within the European fold" to prevent the region from returning to the bloody ethnic conflict of the 1990s, and pivoting to Russia and China, "as has been the trend in recent years." He says the new "Enlargement Strategy" that the European Commission plans to adopt in February, "will set a target date of 2025 for the accession of Serbia and Montenegro." This might also help Kosovo and Serbia promote confidence-building efforts and ease tensions.
The question is whether the "European-led reforms" in these new potential EU members are of long-term sustainability to qualify for membership? Shouldn't the EU learn from past lessons? The 2004 Eastern Enlargement admitted Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia into the EU. The 2007 enlargement saw the accession of Bulgaria and Romania. Today only the Baltic States can be seen as both reliable and respectable members.
In retrospect the extension of EU membership to countries like the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania may have been premature. The lesson is that it takes decades for Eastern Europe and its citizens to adjust themselves to Western values. Self-determination and consumerism alone do not make people more democratic. The first bunch of politicians that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union made up of enthusiastic, pro-EU and reform-minded politicians. In recent years, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are governed by illiberal anti-EU parties.
Even after their countries gained independence following the fall of the Soviet Union, people still rally behind strong leaders. Although they don't want to be ruled by a “dictatorship of the proletariat”, they support populist leaders, as long as they are provided for. Tapping into anti-multicultural sentiments, populist, autocratic leaders in Eastern Europe defend a conservative, nationalist and nativist agenda. They milk benefits from the EU, while violating EU laws and eroding its liberal order.
In the face of the illiberal democracies in Eastern Europe, it raises doubts about admitting countries in the Western Balkans, where crime and corruption are pervasive, with judicial reforms taking the backseat.
Macedonia was spared the inter-ethnic violence that raged in the Balkans following the break-up of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. but it came close to civil war a decade after independence. The country has been without a functioning government since 2015, following a wiretapping scandal that brought down the ruling nationalist party bloc. Social Democratic leader Zoran Zaev and his coalition partners representing Macedonia's ethnic Albanian minority. The president is wary of empowering Macedonia's ethnic Albanians, its largest minority, and thereby pose a threat to sovereignty. The country's name remains a contentious issue, because Greeks fear that its name could be linked to their northern region of Macedonia.
Montenegro emerged as a sovereign state after just over 55% of the population opted for independence in a May 2006 referendum, ending the Union of Serbia and Montenegro, which was created only three years earlier out of the remnant of the former Yugoslavia.The country is moving towards further integration with the West. A NATO membership since 2017 it aspires to join the EU. Others like Bosnia and Herzegovina face political resistance from the EU or their neighbours.
The author says, "Russia clearly has an interest in discouraging Western Balkan countries from pursuing NATO and EU membership, which is all the more reason for the EU to step up its engagement in the region." But what EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker did in his 2017 “State of the Union” address - calling for a “credible enlargement perspective” for the region, may instill unrealistic hope, that would end up in disappointment. There is little appetite within the EU for absorbing more new members just for the sake of preventing Moscow from bringing them in the Russian fold. If these countries can not get their act together, like putting their houses in order, they will only pose problems to the already crisis-ridden EU once they become members.
- Henk Crop Feb 2, 2018
  
  J. Yesterday there was a report that Juncker wanted Bulgaria to join Schengen and take over the task of stopping illegal immigrants. However they had only a simple fence kids could easily cross and guards accepting brides.
  Juncker shows again that he does not care what happens to the people in the EU as long as he can continue building his cathedral. The people have to pay and get crime in return.
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Henk Crop Feb 1, 2018

The Western Balkans countries live isolated and are divided by century old religious conflicts.
They look like Europeans and often speak the same language, but their differences remain.
It is an illusion that an EU membership will resolve all that.
The immense Brussels naive interferense has proven to be very dangerous.
The EU contributed greatly to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
I still recall the pictures of mr. Verhofstad on Maidan square calling the Ukainians the real Europeans.
On the Balkan conflict the EU needed the US to save them.
On the local level: the Albanians, not even EU members, have taken over to-day the drugtrade in the streets of Rotterdam.
We must set up a special relation for these countries, but exclude EU membership for many decades to come.
In general, Brussels is suffering from imperial overstretch. They are the good people, but to naive to operate effectively in the international environment. Examples: the bombing of Lybia, in Syria they delayed peace negotiations, their disruptive immigration policy, new is a special relationship with the colonies of the former French empire in Africa.
- Steve Hurst Feb 1, 2018
  
  There was a report (which now has disappeared from the internet) that circa 2005 the then US ambassador in Ukraine advised Washington to the effect that Russia would not happily let the Naval Fleet base at Sebastopol go under EU control at any point. I presume the info is lodged with Wikileaks but have no way of verifying it. It would be like Pearl Harbour in Hawaii coming under Russian control if Hawaii activists wanted to secede, it would cause strategic concern. This geopolitical dabbling is dangerous whether it is EU or Russia or Other inspired
  - Henk Crop Feb 2, 2018
    
    Steve. I recall a press report at that time whereby Rumania and Bulgaria, then new NATO members, called upon the NATO to form a Black Sea Fleet.
    Now they are still surprised that Russia took over the Crimea.
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Steve Hurst Jan 31, 2018

How very 19th century geopolitical, even the same humanitarian claims, the superior to uplift the inferior for the greater good mentality, but also for the security of the superior - as a side issue of course. The arrogance of belief that the answers are known by an outsider. 'Our relations... in the forty years ...were successively those of blundering interference and of unmasterly inactivity' Lord Curzon 1889 commenting on The Great Game. 'Beyond these fundamental imperatives, the region will also need massive investments in transportation and communications infrastructure, to connect it to the rest of Europe' Guy V. This also is very 19th century, the American railroad development model. It did quell the Wild West as part of the Manifest Destiny program. When such 19th century grandiose strategies, which have questionable attributes, are proposed in the 21st century I worry. I would much prefer to hear what the individuals in the Balkans think and aspire to rather than what medicine Guy V thinks should be prescribed because at the end of the day resolution to conflict has to come from within those countries.
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