Добро пожаловать в эпоху некомпетентности

Существует два диаметрально противоположных сценария того, что произойдет с мировыми реальными ставками процента в течение следующих нескольких десятилетий.

Те, кто пророчит низкие ставки процента, указывают на быстрый рост производительности и потенциальных объемов производства в мировой экономике. Согласно этой точке зрения главной проблемой для центральных банков будет не сдерживание спроса, превышающего потенциально возможное предложение, а, наоборот, его стимулирование. Они подчеркивают тот факт, что крупнейшие центральные банки мира, такие как Федеральный Резерв, Европейский Центральный банк и Банк Японии, настолько укрепили доверие к проводимой ими антиинфляционной политике, что премии за финансовый риск, вызванный инфляцией, больше не учитываются в ставках процента.

Те, кто верит в низкие ставки процента, также обращают внимание на сдвиг в распределении доходов от труда к капиталу в Соединенных Штатах, что значительно увеличило ресурсы компаний для финансирования внутренних инвестиций и уменьшило их зависимость от рынков капиталов. Они указывают на быстрый технический прогресс, позволивший повысить эффективность старых и новых капиталовложений, и считают, что при наличии жесткой конкуренции в экономике нас ждут относительно высокие цены активов и относительно низкие реальные ставки процента во всем мире.

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