欢迎进入执政无能的时代

对于未来二十五至三十年中全球实际利率的走向有两种截然不同的预测。

认为低实际利率会主导未来二十五到三十年的人,其预测的依据是世界经济的生产率和潜在产能的快速增长。根据这种观点,各国央行将会面临的首要问题不是在需求超过产能时对其进行抑制,而是在需求滞后于产能时对其进行拉动。他们指出,世界主要的中央银行-美联储、欧洲央行和日本银行-已经筑起了一道反通货膨胀坚固防线,从而将通货膨胀的风险差额从利率中挤出去了。

相信低利率的人们还强调美国的收益分配从劳力向资本的转移。这种转移已经极大地增强了企业内部融资的能力,从而减低了它们对资本市场的依赖程度。他们还指出急速的技术进步使得新旧资本投资的收益都有所增加。他们表示随着经济领域中竞争的强化,我们可以预见在未来的二十五至三十年中全世界范围内的较高资产价格和较低实际利率。

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