أهلاً بكم في عصر اللا كفاءة

هناك سيناريوهان متعارضان تماماً لما يمكن أن يحدث لمعدل الفائدة الحقيقي العالمي في الجيل القادم.

يشير أولئك الذين يتنبأون بمعدلات فوائد منخفضة خلال الجيل القادم إلى النمو السريع في القدرة الإنتاجية والناتج الاقتصادي العالمي. وتبعاً لهذه النظرة فإن المشكلة الأساسية التي تواجهها البنوك المركزية لا تكمن في قمع الطلب في حالة تجاوزه للإمكانيات الموجودة، بل في تحفيز الطلب قدماً، لتراجعه متقهقراً بعيداً عنها. وهم يشيرون إلى حقيقة أن كبريات البنوك العالمية مثل الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، والبنك الأوربي المركزي وبنك اليابان قد بنت سياسات مضادة للتضخم شديدة الإحكام لدرجة استنزفت قيمة معدلات الفائدة فيها حتى النهاية.

ويؤكد المؤمنون بمعدلات الفائدة المنخفضة على الانتقال في توزيع الدخول في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية من العمالة إلى رؤوس الأموال، الأمر الذي دفع المؤسسات بقوة نحو توظيف مصادرها في تمويل الاستثمارات الداخلية، وفي الابتعاد عن توظيف هذه المصادر في أسواق رؤوس الأموال. ويقول المؤمنون بالنظرية السابقة، تبعاً للبيئة التنافسية القوية التي تعصف بالاقتصاد، بأننا مقبلون على جيل من الأصول ذات الأسعار المرتفعة والفوائد الحقيقية المنخفضة على الاستثمار عالمياً.

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