Готовиться к неизвестным неизвестностям

ЛОНДОН – Мы живем в опасные времена. В то время, когда нам кажется, что мы определили направление своей жизни, вдруг происходит событие, которое дает нам ощущение, будто нас сбили с ног. Действия и события часто переплетаются, и то, что случается на одном уровне, влияя на людей, государства, секторы экономики, компании разных масштабов – может иметь последствия и на других уровнях.

Недавние террористические атаки в Париже – это события, повлиявшие не только на семьи и друзей погибших жертв, и даже не только на жителей Франции. Последствия этих террористических актов ощущаются по всему миру, и они продолжают оказывать влияние далеко за пределами Европы – на государственную политику, на избирательную политику, на свободу прессы и многое другое.

Эти атаки произошли в то время, когда мир традиционно пытался определить события будущего года – для прогнозирования возможных опасностей, определения потенциальных возможностей, а также других трудностей, которые придется преодолевать. Но как насчет долгосрочных опасностей? Показали ли события в Париже, что такой прогноз невозможен? Или же эти нападения являются именно теми видами опасностей, которые надо прогнозировать в долгосрочном планировании?

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