Se préparer aux aléas inconnus

LONDRES – Nous vivons une époque pleine de dangers. Dès que nous sommes sur le point de retrouver nos repères, un événement ou un autre pour nous ébranler à nouveau. Les actes et les événements sont souvent étroitement liés et ce qui arrive sur un plan – frappant des personnes, des États, des secteurs économiques et des sociétés de toute taille – peut avoir des répercussions sur d’autres.

Les récents attentats terroristes à Paris en sont un exemple, touchant non seulement les familles et les amis des victimes, mais aussi la France tout entière. Les répercussions se font sentir dans le monde entier et elles continueront de le faire – bien au-delà des frontières de l’Europe – dans des domaines comme la politique publique, la scène électorale, la liberté de presse et bien d’autres.

Les attentats sont arrivés au moment où les gens ont coutume de chercher un sens à l’année qui vient – pour prévoir les risques qui nous attendent, les occasions à saisir et les défis à relever. Mais qu’en est-il des risques à long terme ? Des événements comme les attentats de Paris montrent à quel point il est difficile de les prévoir ? Ou bien les attentats ont-ils exposé précisément le type de risque que les projections à long terme devraient avoir décelé ?

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