为未知的未知做好准备

伦敦—我们生活在危险的时代。就在我们似乎认清了形势时,机会发生一些事情,让我们觉得双腿被位于我们之下的东西弄瘫痪了。行动和事件常常互相纠结,在某一层面所发生的事情——影响个体、国家、经济部门和各个规模的公司——可能会在其他层面引起反响。

最近在巴黎发生的恐怖袭击就是这样的例子,它影响的不只是受害者的家庭和朋友,甚至不只是法国人民。反响在全世界都能体验到,并将继续给公共政策、选举政治、言论自由和其他方面造成影响——并且远远不止于欧洲。

袭击发生在全世界根据传统展望新年的时候——也就是预测前方有何风险、有何机会、需要克服何种挑战的时候。但长期风险情况如何?巴黎袭击这样的事件是否表明预测它们是不可能的任务?或者,袭击是否暴露了长期预测应该看到的风险?

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