一损俱损的美国与欧洲

美国压倒性的威势已经保持得太久,以致许多人以为她在经历了乔治·W·布什执政的任期后还能毫发无损。这种想法的错误性可以从那些利用美国声誉和影响力的削弱来大肆捞取利益的人身上可以看出来,从俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔·普京、委内瑞拉的雨果·查维斯,到伊朗的艾哈迈迪·内贾德和津巴布韦的罗伯特·穆加贝。这可不是幸灾乐祸的时候。相反,美国的盟友,特别是欧洲,应该意识到,美国的衰落也会削弱他们自己的国际影响力。

美国衰落的迹象已经十分明显。在美国的威势达到巅峰的时期,北约对前苏联影响下的地区的蚕食似乎不可阻挡,俄罗斯只能黯然退避。美国进军中亚,参与打击阿富汗塔利班的行动,普京总统予以默许;美国撕毁限制战略性导弹防卫系统的“反弹道导弹条约”,他也没有提出严肃的抗议。美国急于将乌克兰和格鲁吉亚纳入北约时不觉得有必要考虑俄罗斯的想法,认为克里姆林宫面对必然的结果根本没有选择,只能接受现实。

时过境迁。如今,普京正试图重新建立俄罗斯前几年失去的影响力。他一边对波罗的海三国施加压力,明确警告北约不得继续扩张,一边在整个欧洲巧妙地打着反美牌。在乌克兰,反对与西方加强战略联系的政治力量已经站稳脚跟。克里姆林宫将美国在波兰和捷克共和国建立小型导弹防御基地的计划渲染成对俄罗斯重大安全利益的威胁,态度咄咄逼人。

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