woman carrying water Noah Seelam/Stringer

La guerra, la paz y el agua

WASHINGTON, DC – En la actualidad, la India enfrenta su peor crisis hídrica en años: se estima que 330 millones de personas (un cuarto de su población) sufren los efectos de una grave sequía. Etiopía también sufre su peor sequía en décadas, que ya ha sido un factor de la pérdida de varias cosechas y causado una carencia de alimentos que afecta a una décima parte de su población. En tales circunstancias, aumenta el riesgo de que se produzcan conflictos sobre los recursos.

En el pasado, seguías de esta envergadura han llevado a conflictos y hasta guerras entre comunidades y estados vecinos. Uno de los primeros de los que hay  registro en la historia moderna ocurrió hace unos 4500 años cuando la ciudad-estado de Lagash (ubicada entre los ríos Tigris y Éufrates en el actual Irak) desvió agua de su vecina, Umma. La competencia por el agua gatilló violentos conflictos en la antigua China y generó inestabilidad política en el Egipto faraónico.

Hoy en día es poco común que se produzcan guerras reales sobre los recursos hídricos, gracias al aumento del diálogo y la cooperación transfronteriza. Sin embargo, al interior de los países la competencia por un agua escasa causa cada vez más inestabilidad y conflictos, especialmente a medida que el cambio climático aumenta la gravedad y frecuencia de condiciones climáticas extremas. Como detallamos en nuestro informe ““High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy” (“A nuestra suerte: cambio climático, agua y economía”), cuando la disponibilidad hídrica se vuelve errática y limitada, disminuye el crecimiento económico, aumenta la migración y se generan conflictos civiles, lo que a su vez impulsa más aún flujos migratorios potencialmente desestabilizadores.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/zqPFUjf/es;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now