woman carrying water Noah Seelam/Stringer

Война и мир и вода

ВАШИНГТОН – Индия столкнулась с худшим водным кризисом за многие годы: около 330 миллионов человек, то есть четверть населения страны, стали жертвами жестокой засухи. Эфиопия также переживает худшую засуху за десятилетия; она вызвала гибель значительной части урожая, так что нехватку продовольствия испытывает уже 10% населения страны. В подобных обстоятельствах резко возрастает угроза обострения противоречий из-за ресурсов.

В прошлом столь мощные засухи приводили к конфликтам и даже войнам между соседними регионами и государствами. Один из первых известных нам в истории случаев произошёл примерно 4500 лет назад –город-государство Лагаш, располагавшийся между реками Тигр и Евфрат на территории современного Ирака, перекрыл воду соседнему государству Умма. Конкуренция за воду становилась причиной вооруженных стычек в древнем Китае и политической нестабильности в Египте времён фараонов.

Сегодня, благодаря укреплению диалога и международного сотрудничества, государства редко воюют из-за водных ресурсов. Однако внутри стран конкуренция за скудные запасы воды становится всё более частой причиной нестабильности и конфликтов. Этому особенно способствует нарастание силы и частоты экстремальных погодных явлений из-за изменения климата. В нашем новом докладе «На мели: изменение климата, вода и экономика» подробно говорится о том, как ограничения и перебои в поставках воды вызывают снижение темпов роста экономики, стимулируют миграцию и разжигают гражданские конфликты, которые, в свою очередь, стимулируют ещё большую, потенциально дестабилизирующую миграцию.

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