woman carrying water Noah Seelam/Stringer

战争、和平与水资源

华盛顿——印度正面临多年来最严重的水资源危机,约有3亿3000万人(占全国人口的1/4)面临严重干旱的影响。埃塞俄比亚也面临着几十年来最严重的干旱,导致许多农作物歉收、由此造成的粮食短缺威胁着该国1/10左右的人口。在这样的情况下,为争夺资源造成局势紧张的危险性非常之高。

过去,如此程度的严重干旱曾导致临近社区与国家间爆发冲突乃至战争。有记录历史以来的首次战争爆发于约4,500年前,当时位于现代伊拉克境内底格里斯和幼发拉底河之间的拉加什城邦曾想从其邻国乌玛引水。古代中国曾因为争水引发了暴力事件,水资源短缺也在法老统治的古埃及助长了政治上的不稳定。

今天,因为争夺水资源而引发实际战争的情况已经十分罕见,因为对话和跨界合作的效率已经大幅提高。但在国家内部,争夺稀缺水资源正在成为动荡和冲突比较常见的来源,特别是当气候变化加剧了极端天气事件的频率和严重程度。正如我们在新报告“高纬度和干旱:气候变化、水资源和经济”中所提到的那样,有限和不稳定的水资源供应限制经济增长、诱发移民潮并导致内部冲突,而这又助长了可能进一步造成动荡的移民潮。

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