Comment réparer la douche ?

NEW-YORK – Imaginez que vous alliez sous la douche, mais qu'il n'y ait pas d'eau quand vous ouvrez le robinet. Vous appelez alors un plombier qui vous dit qu'il y a des fuites dans les tuyaux et qu'il va vous en coûter 1000 dollars. Pour vous en tirer à moindre coût, allez-vous lui demander à la place d'augmenter la pression de l'eau ?

La réponse est Oui pour la Réserve fédérale américaine. C'est exactement la logique qui sous-tend le renouvellement de sa politique de relâchement monétaire QE2 (quantitative easing) destinée à maintenir le flux de dollars dans les tuyaux financiers en attendant que le crédit circule à nouveau dans les tuyaux des banques vers les entreprises.

Mais de même qu'il y a peu de chance que cela marche pour votre douche, il n'y a guère de raison de croire que cela va marcher dans le domaine des crédits commerciaux. Les mécanismes de crédit transmission, que ce soit aux USA ou ailleurs, fonctionnent très mal depuis 2007. Aux USA, les petites et moyennes entreprises dépendent de banques de petite taille ou de taille moyenne pour obtenir un crédit, ce qui est d'importance vitale pour elles. Pourtant un trop grand nombre de ces banques ne sont que des fantômes de banque, incapables de faire un prêt, parce qu'elles traînent le boulet des prêts immobiliers et commerciaux à haut risque datant des années de boom économique.

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