fischer192_FREDERICK FLORINAFP via Getty Images_EUarmy

Politics

Wat de oorlog in Oekraïne voor Europa betekent

May 4, 2022 Joschka Fischer

BERLIJN – Hoewel het lente is in Europa, lijkt het continent een flashback te beleven naar enkele van de meest grimmige momenten van de Koude Oorlog. De inval van Rusland in Oekraïne heeft niet alleen een einde gemaakt aan een langdurige periode van vrede in Europa, maar ook aan de Europese veiligheidsorde waarvan die vrede afhankelijk was.

Natuurlijk is het einde niet plotseling gekomen. Bijna acht jaar voordat Rusland op 24 februari tienduizenden soldaten naar Oekraïne stuurde, annexeerde het land de Krim en begon het een schaduwoorlog in de regio Donbas. Sindsdien hebben mensen gevochten en zijn ze gestorven in het geweld in Oost-Oekraïne, terwijl de wereld toekeek hoe het Kremlin een soevereine staat probeerde te ʻfilerenʼ door er provincies af te schaven.

Sinds 2014 bestaat het Europese vredeskader alleen nog op papier, waar het in stand werd gehouden door het wensdenken van de West-Europeanen over de politieke intenties van Rusland. De vorige Europese orde, die berustte op de absolute integriteit van grenzen, is vervangen door een oudere vorm van Europese grootmachtpolitiek, waarin geweld wordt gebruikt om eenzijdig invloedzones op te eisen. De dreiging van een nieuwe Grote Oorlog is dus teruggekeerd in Europa, en de Europeanen zijn daar politiek, militair en vooral psychologisch niet op voorbereid.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

E A May 6, 2022

There is no such authority that could guarantee an international agreement of any kind between two or more countries would be honoured. There are only certain circumstances that improve the chances of such agreements being honoured by the parties involved.
Agreements between democratic countries are agreements between nations represented by their leaders who are accountable to their people. If a democratic leader dishonoured an agreement, they would have to explain themselves to their nation. If hypothetically Trump had dishonoured NATO’s article 5, no doubt some of his citizens would have opposed the decision and been allowed to express that. Thus agreements between democratic countries have better chances of being honoured.
Agreements between authoritarian regimes are agreements between individual leaders not accountable to their people. Unlike democratic leaders, authoritarians do not need to face their nation and answer challenging questions when they dishonour agreements. Recent events of China economically bullying Australia and Lithuania show how much authoritarian regimes honour even international trade agreements. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the Russian people, who asked why, were silenced, so I can’t see how Putin would be motivated to honour any peace agreement.
Regarding Europe’s security, I believe it should be strengthened within a global security framework. There are too many complicated smaller and bigger defence alliances and agreements between various countries. Sometimes, it’s even unclear how they would work. For instance, if China attacked Australia, the US would come to its defence as per their defence agreement. But then China would attack the US too. Does that mean then all NATO get involved in a war with China because of article 5? It may be better to replace existing alliances between democratic countries, including NATO, with one global security alliance of world democracies that adopts NATO’s article 5. Only democratic countries should be allowed to join it. Uniting NATO and countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand into one alliance may significantly improve global security as well as European. The new alliance should also devise a working procedure for recycling member countries that turn away from democracy.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter McLoughlin May 5, 2022

Humanity is careening towards nuclear war, for it seems nothing changes, we are still to face the worst. One vital lesson we have not learned from history: everyone eventually meets the conflict they are trying to avoid – their own demise. And everyone wants to avoid nuclear annihilation. The logic is clear.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Eric Weis May 5, 2022

Thank you Herr Fischer for an incisive article, as always. I have one qualification. You describe Russia as "careening toward totalitarianism". I believe it is fair to describe Russia as returning to totalitarianism, if indeed it ever departed from it at all. Russian culture going back to the Tsarist empire is engrained with reliance on a single, higher power. That is one reason that Russia, unlike the West, lurches from one infrequent revolution to the next. It is possible, therefore, that a fourth scenario exists in this age of internet-leakable information. A new Russian revolution, a Russian summer, could well be baking in the oven. Revolutions often have unintended consequences. The West should therefore be prepared for even greater instablity on its Eastern Front.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
vic lai May 5, 2022

If the EU countries could really do "the urgent task of building their own defensive, technological, and nuclear deterrence capabilities" at a non-prohibitively high cost, the former clever and equally capable EU politicians would already have finished doing it many decades ago, and today's EU wouldn't need the ongoing Ukraine War to remind herself of the urgent need to do so.
---
It's said on the internet that after a certain period of time, when the current anti-Russia hysteria of most EU countries fades away, the current crucial EU politicians will seriously reconsider their future relationship with their big undefeatable neighbor in the East, stop the eastern political expansion of Western Europe, prohibit further color revolutions instigated in mid- and eastern Europe, try to coexist peacefully with all their neighboring countries in all parts of Europe, and continue to pursue the mutually beneficial One-Belt One-Road Initiative in Eurasia, irrespective of the political demand of their once-dominant friendly country on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
---
- vic lai May 8, 2022
  
  It's now well known that, one important answer to the title of this article is that, the EU countries now giving unused old weapons to Ukraine can also renew their arsenal with the latest updated and more powerful weapons coming from America.
  That's one major reason why America, as the NATO's major weapon seller, wants the Ukraine War to persist for a long time, during which she can also test the power of her own pilotless drone weapons.
  ---
  - K Harris May 10, 2022
    
    “It's now well known that, one important answer to the title of this article is that, the EU countries now giving unused old weapons to Ukraine can also renew their arsenal with the latest updated and more powerful weapons coming from America.”
    
    You’d have to believe that there’s tremendous political will for very high levels of military preparedness spending in the EU to make this idea workable. No sign of that of course. Just getting Germany to meet its pre-Ukraine NATO military spending commitments has been impossible.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/1k4Y9rmnl

Wat de oorlog in Oekraïne voor Europa betekent

Subscribe to PS Digital

New Comment

Contact us

Log in/Register

Wat de oorlog in Oekraïne voor Europa betekent

Subscribe to PS Digital

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification