Guerra en "Cámara Lenta"

Quitando toda la retórica y las posturas de la guerra, el terrorismo y el holocausto nuclear, entre todo lo que queda resalta una cosa en la confrontación que se vislumbra entre India y Pakistán. India, fuertemente afectada por el ataque suicida a su parlamento (que estuvo apenas a segundos de acabar con todo el liderazgo político de la democracia más grande del mundo), no está blofeando. Está preparada para hacer la guerra y así terminar con las incursiones terroristas que han causado tantos estragos en Kashmir durante 18 años.

Aún así, la "política de guerra" de India es flexible, porque no demanda una victoria clásica frente a Pakistán. Quiere, en cambio, dar fin al terrorismo interfrontera cambiando la creencia que Pakistán tiene en cuanto a que podría "sangrar a India con mil heridas" a un bajo costo, y así lograr un cambio en el estatus de Kashmir como parte de India. En su "guerra contra el terror", entonces, India aplicará la fuerza en pequeñas dósis a través del tiempo, con un impacto acumulativo, posiblemente extendiéndose más allá del año entrante; una guerra, por así decir, en "cámara lenta".

¿Cómo se vería una guerra así? Una mirada a la estructura de las fuerzas enfrentadas puede ayudar aquí. India tiene una substancial superioridad cuantitativa y cualitativa sobre Pakistán en el renglón de las fuerzas convencionales. Es por esa superioridad que Pakistán adquirió armas nucleares. No podría equipararse con India en ninguna batalla convencional y, como Occidente hizo en su confrontación con la URSS durante la Guerra Fría, buscó la seguridad de la inmovilidad nuclear.

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