La guerre au ralenti

Une fois la rhétorique et l'hypocrisie guerrière, le terrorisme et l'holocauste nucléaire abandonnés, un seul élément dominant découle du conflit qui menace entre l'Inde et le Pakistan. L'Inde, mal remise de

l'attaque suicide de décembre dernier, qui faillit bien annihiler toute la direction politique de la plus grande démocratie mondiale, ne bluffe pas. Elle est prête à s'engager dans le conflit pour mettre fin aux incursions terroristes qui ravagent le Cachemire depuis 18 ans.

Pour autant, la «politique de guerre» de l'Inde reste flexible parce qu'elle n'a pas besoin d'une victoire classique contre le Pakistan. Elle préférerait plutôt mettre un terme au terrorisme interfrontalier en agissant sur la confiance historique que le Pakistan place dans sa capacité à «saigner l'Inde avec un millier d'entailles», à moindre coût de sa part, afin de modifier le statut du Cachemire, considéré comme un État indien. Dans sa «guerre contre le terrorisme», l'Inde souhaite donc utiliser sa force de frappe à faible dose sur le long terme, avec un effet cumulatif s'étendant au-delà de l'année prochaine éventuellement : une guerre au ralenti pour ainsi dire.

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