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Politics

捷克与俄罗斯关系的爆炸性重启

Apr 29, 2021 Erik Tabery

布拉格——在政府宣布两名俄罗斯特工应对2014年发生在莫拉维亚Vrbětice村导致两人死亡的军火库爆炸事件负责后，捷克共和国经历了自1989年天鹅绒革命以来最富戏剧性的两周。前总理博胡斯拉夫·索博特卡淋漓尽致地表达了公众的震惊情绪：“我要说，这是自1968年入侵行动以来俄罗斯对捷克领土发动的最大规模袭击，这是一个历史性时刻，我们必须反击。”

我们的确发动了反击。捷克政府驱逐了18名在俄罗斯驻布拉格使馆工作的俄罗斯间谍，从而引发了可以预见的对捷克驻莫斯科外交官针锋相对的驱逐。更重要的是，这或许会成为捷克共和国的转折点，甚至牵涉到整个中欧。

该地区的地缘政治局势似乎一直以来都十分清楚。波兰坚决反对克里姆林宫，斯洛伐克人力求保持低调，而维克多·奥尔班总理领导下的匈牙利人则是克里姆林宫在欧洲的盟友。捷克人则一直拐来拐去，既不想得罪北约也不想得罪俄国。早在19世纪末，诗人约瑟夫·斯瓦托普卢克·马查尔就准确捕捉到了捷克的立场：“我们将支持与同情/从东方转到西方，又从西方转到东方/我们传染上了两者的缺点，但却没有学到它们的任何的优势…”

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j. von Hettlingen Apr 30, 2021

According to Erik Tabery the Czech decision last week to declare some 60 Russian diplomats and staff personae non gratae highlights the crisis in the Czech-Russian relations that had worsened following the revelation that Russian agents were behind a 2014 attack on a munitions depot in the Moravian village of Vrbětice. Former Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka feared it was “the largest Russian attack on Czech soil since the invasion in 1968. It is a historic moment, and we must react.”
It was the largest number of Russian diplomats expelled from a single country since Ronald Reagan expelled 80 Cold War-era Soviet emissaries in 1986. As tensions escalated 20 Czech diplomats have been expelled from Moscow in a tit-for-tat. Russia had refused to accept the Czech ultimatum to let them all return to their embassy in Moscow. For the first time since the Velvet Revolution in 1989, the Czech Republic has seen “one of its most dramatic fortnights” in recent weeks.
For long the geopolitical situation in Central Europe remained static. “Poland is firmly opposed to the Kremlin, the Slovaks try to remain invisible, the Hungarians under Viktor Orbán are the Kremlin’s placemen in Europe, and the Czechs zigzag, trying not to alienate either Russia or NATO.” The Czech poet, Josef Svatopluk Machar, made a poignant remark at the end of the nineteenth century: “And we balance our sympathies / from the East in the West, from the West in the East / with the faults of both, but none of their strengths…”
After the anti-communist hero Václav Havel became Czechoslovak president in 1989, the author says, “it seemed clear that we were part of the West and that we wanted to be active members of NATO and the European Union. But Havel’s shining narrative blinded us to what would follow. The Czech elite that emerged in the post-communist 1990s was much more pragmatic. Where Havel spoke of values, others spoke of money. Business and the economy were everything; foreign policy must adapt.”
The Czech example reveals that the 2004 enlargement of the EU to include ten East and Central European countries was a mistake - letting former Russian satellites join the bloc prematurely without first bolstering their democratisation process. “Czech governments weren’t pro-Kremlin. The local mindset reflected more a refusal to commit. We wanted to be in the EU because it meant money, and we wanted to be in NATO because we would be protected. But as soon as we had to show any kind of solidarity, we started walking backward and grousing.”
The author is highly cynical of his country’s attitude towards the EU membership. “Whereas Roman Catholicism is deeply intertwined with Polish politics, and historical ressentiment still has a powerful influence in Hungary, it’s materialism that plays this animating role in the Czech Republic, whether the government is left or right.” The current prime minister, Andrej Babiš, “wants only money from the EU,” while refuing to follow European rules, saying the Czech Republic is not a “colony of Brussels.”
Precisely this approach makes the Czechs vulnerable to Russian manipulation, “because it creates the impression that we don’t belong anywhere and will go along with whoever pays more.” Some leading politicians have become Russian apologists, defending the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine. Former right-wing president Václav Klaus even calls for an exit from the EU, and has “strongly condemned the government’s response to the revelations about the attack in Vrbětice.”
Miloš Zeman the former leader of the Social Democratic Party, is known for his strong anti-migrant and pro-Russian views. Since becoming president in 2013, “he has cast doubt on Russia’s…invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine; attacked Czech intelligence agencies that warned against Russian influence; promoted Russia’s role in completing a local nuclear power plant;” and called for the removal of politicians critical of Russia, “and former health minister Jan Blatný, who refused to buy Russia’s unapproved Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine…..”
The author says “we are nearing a turning point,” not only for their country, but also for Central Europe. “Many Czechs now understand that we have no choice but to engage with geopolitics and the values that underpin our alliances. We simply have to adopt a clear stance toward Russia. We are a part of the West, which Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin views as an enemy.” Czechs have realised that “our dependence on Russia is much smaller than we thought. Mutual trade is minimal; our energy supplies are diversified.” Most of all “they can be active members of the EU and NATO.”
Yet the author expects more robust reactions from the West to Russian involvement in the 2014 attack on the munitions depot. Its failure to be more responsive allowed pro-Russian websites and politicians to claim that the West does not believe or care about it. “This response strikes a powerful nerve with Czechs. The painful memory of British and French appeasement at Munich in 1938 – after which Czechoslovakia found itself facing Hitler alone – persists here.”
The West must not forget that the Czechs are watching closely whether their allies within the EU and NATO take great interest in them. There was a sigh of relief that they were taken seriously. In solidarity with the Czech action, several NATO members had “symbolically” expelled Russian diplomats. Yet the parliamentary elections this fall will be the litmus test for the Czechs to decide which direction their country takes - east or west. As much is at stake for Russia, it will seek to step up its malign activities to help its candidates win. Voters must not let this happen.
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捷克与俄罗斯关系的爆炸性重启

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