Una solución por la negativa para Siria

BERLÍN – Con el plan de Rusia y Estados Unidos para la destrucción de las armas químicas sirias (encarnado ahora en la Resolución 2118 del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas), puede ser que la búsqueda de un final a la guerra civil tome un rumbo más constructivo, ya que el Consejo de Seguridad también demanda que se celebre cuanto antes la largamente planeada segunda conferencia de Ginebra sobre Siria. Y con razón: la eliminación de los arsenales químicos de Siria debe ir de la mano de un proceso político que ponga fin a la guerra.

En primer lugar, por razones prácticas: ningún intento de verificar, asegurar y, finalmente, destruir el enorme arsenal de armas químicas con que cuenta Siria será viable si no se logra, por lo menos, un alto el fuego duradero. Pero hay también otros motivos que exigen sincronizar ambos procesos.

Aparte del sufrimiento humano, no es posible ignorar las terribles consecuencias que la guerra civil siria puede tener sobre la región. Algunos advierten sobre el riesgo de una “libanización” del país, esto es, su división en feudos rivales y regiones cuasi independientes. Pero la fragmentación de Siria no es la única hipótesis probable.

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