Сирия: решение без решения

БЕРЛИН – Российско-американский план по уничтожению сирийского химического оружия – ныне воплощенный в резолюцию 2118 Совета Безопасности ООН – может положить начало более конструктивному подходу к прекращению идущей в стране гражданской войны, поскольку Совет Безопасности требует, кроме всего, скорейшего созыва второй Женевской конференции по Сирии. И это правильно: уничтожение запасов химического оружия в Сирии и политический процесс, направленный на окончание войны, должны происходить одновременно.

С практической точки зрения, усилия по выявлению, обезвреживанию и, в конце концов, уничтожению огромных сирийских арсеналов химического оружия не могут быть воплощены в жизнь, если не будет достигнуто по меньшей мере прекращение огня. Но синхронизация обоих процессов необходима и по другим причинам.

Если даже сбросить со счета страдания людей, вызванные продолжением войны в Сирии, мы должны осознавать, к каким печальным последствиям в регионе она может привести. Кое-кто сейчас предупреждает о «ливанизации» Сирии – разделении страны на противоборствующие феоды и псевдонезависимые регионы. Но фрагментация Сирии – не единственный реально возможный сценарий.

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