A solução para o caso insolucionável da Síria

BERLIM – O plano da Rússia e dos EUA com vista a eliminar as armas químicas da Síria - presentemente consubstanciado na Resolução 2118 do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas - pode abrir caminho a uma abordagem mais construtiva para pôr termo à guerra civil do país, uma vez o Conselho de Segurança exige igualmente que a Conferência de Genebra II sobre a Síria, há muito planeada, seja realizada o mais rapidamente possível. É legítimo que assim seja: a eliminação dos arsenais de armas químicas da Síria e o processo político para acabar com a guerra devem ocorrer em simultâneo.

Em termos práticos, os esforços para controlar, garantir a segurança e, por fim, destruir o enorme arsenal de armas químicas da Síria não podem ser implementados sem que haja, pelo menos, um cessar-fogo duradouro. Mas a sincronização dos dois processos é necessária igualmente em virtude de outras razões.

Além do sofrimento humano causado pela guerra em curso na Síria, devemos ter consciência das consequências regionais potencialmente graves. Actualmente, algumas pessoas lançam o alerta para a "Libanização" da Síria – a divisão do país em feudos rivais e regiões semi-independentes. Contudo, a fragmentação da Síria não é o único cenário plausível.

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