L’incertitude de la solution syrienne

BERLIN – Les démarches entreprises par les États-Unis et la Russie pour éliminer l’arsenal chimique syrien – désormais inscrites dans le cadre de la résolution 2118 du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies – pourraient bien déboucher sur une approche plus constructive en direction de la fin de la guerre civile dans le pays, dans la mesure où le Conseil de sécurité exige également que la très attendue conférence de Genève II sur la Syrie se réunisse aussi rapidement que possible. Et cela à juste titre : élimination du stock d’armes chimiques syriennes et processus politique en direction de la fin de la guerre doivent s’opérer de manière simultanée.

En termes tout d’abord pratiques, les efforts de vérification, de sécurisation et en fin de compte de destruction d’un arsenal syrien d’armes chimiques en quantités considérables ne peuvent être déployés à défaut, à tout le moins, d’un cessez-le-feu durable. Mais cette synchronisation des deux processus est également nécessaire pour d’autres raisons.

Au-delà de la souffrance humaine engendrée par une guerre syrienne quotidienne, nous devons rester conscients des conséquences potentiellement désastreuses pour la région. Certains observateurs s’inquiètent désormais d’un risque de « libanisation » de la Syrie – à savoir une division du pays en fiefs rivaux et régions semi-autonomes. Une telle fragmentation de la Syrie ne constitue cependant pas le seul scénario plausible.

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