Die drei Zeitachsen des Nahen Ostens

BERLIN – Die Entwicklungen im Nahen Osten werden durch drei unterschiedliche Zeitachsen geprägt: kurzfristig durch Tagespolitik und tägliche Auseinandersetzungen; mittelfristig durch geopolitische Veränderungen, die in Jahrzehnten gemessen werden; und langfristig durch soziokulturellen Wandel oder das, was der Historiker Fernand Braudel longue durée genannt hat. Um eine effektive Strategie für die Region zu finden, ist es von entscheidender Wichtigkeit, diese Zeitachsen zu verstehen.

Die erste erhält sicherlich die meiste Aufmerksamkeit. Über die letzten Kämpfe zwischen Israel und der Hamas beispielsweise haben die Medien ausgiebig berichtet, ebenso wie über die Verhandlungen in Verbindung mit dem iranischen Nuklearprogramm, die anhaltenden Widerstände und politischen Unterdrückungen in Ägypten und Bahrain sowie das Töten und die humanitären Tragödien in Syrien und im Irak.

Aber das politische Denken in Nahost ist oft mit der zweiten Zeitachse verbunden. In der Tat ist es unmöglich, die jüngere Geschichte und Politik der Region zu erfassen, ohne die Entstehung des regionalen Staatensystems nach dem Ersten Weltkrieg und dem Niedergang des ottomanischen Reiches zu verstehen.

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