¿Vladimir de Gaulle?

MOSCÚ – La mayor desilusión de la era poscomunista ha sido la incapacidad de Occidente –de Europa en particular—de construir una relación exitosa con Rusia. La mayoría de los encargados del diseño de políticas y de los expertos esperaban que, después de un período de transición inevitablemente problemático, Rusia establecería una asociación estratégica y económica con Estados Unidos y Europa basada en intereses y valores compartidos. El ritmo del cambio puede ser incierto, pero su dirección no lo es. El enorme triunfo electoral de Vladimir Putin en las elecciones de la Duma de esta semana ha desmentido esa idea.

Actualmente, los intereses compartidos se han reducido y los valores se han apartado. La Rusia renaciente es la mayor potencia revisionista del mundo y rechaza un status quo basado en la idea de la victoria de Occidente en la Guerra Fría. Las armas nucleares y la energía, que la caracterizan como superpotencia, hacen de ella un posible líder de todas las potencias menores que están a disgusto con su posición en el mundo. Un posible eje Rusia-China basado en la resistencia a la hegemonía estadounidense lleva las semillas de una nueva bipolaridad.

Las expectativas occidentales sobre la trayectoria de la Rusia poscomunista se basaban en tres supuestos que resultaron ser erróneos. En primer lugar, la mayoría de la élite rusa rechazó la idea de que la pérdida del imperio era irreversible. En segundo lugar, el unilateralismo de la administración Bush destrozó la creencia de que Estados Unidos podía seguir proporcionando al mundo un liderazgo “multilateral”; en efecto, el unilateralismo estadounidense fue la señal para que Rusia emprendiera su propia política unilateral. En tercer lugar, Rusia no se ha integrado económicamente con Occidente, sobre todo con Europa, como se esperaba.

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