弗拉基米尔·戴高乐

莫斯科--后冷战时代最令人失望的事情就是西方、特别是欧洲没有建立一个成功的对俄关系。大多数决策者和专家都期望,在经过一段不可避免的艰苦转型期后,俄国将会在共同利益和价值的基础上与美国和欧洲一道构成战略和经济夥伴关系。尽管改变的步伐可能值得怀疑,但是方向是确定无疑的。普京在本周的杜马选举中大获全胜打破了这一观点。

如今,共同利益消退,价值观分道扬镳。复兴的俄罗斯是世界上最大的修正主义大国,它拒绝接受根据西方获得冷战胜利这一观点而制定的现状。俄国的两大超级大国资产,也就是核武器和能源,使得其成为所有不满于在世界上的地位的较为弱小的国家的潜在的领头国家。建立在共同的抵制美国霸权基础上的潜在的中俄轴心有可能成为新的双极世界的开端。

西方对后共产时代俄国的走向的预期建立在三个假设基础之上,它们都被证明是错误的。首先,俄国精英大多数都拒绝接受这一观点,即帝国的丧失是不可逆转的。第二,布什政府的单边主义打破了美国将会继续以“多边主义”领导世界的信念;的确,美国的单边主义引发俄国实行其自身的单边主义政策。第三,俄国并未像人们预期的那样在经济上与西方、特别是欧洲融合。

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