Iraqi woman looking downtrodden

Más guerra que paz

WINCHESTER – "Sólo los muertos han visto el fin de la guerra". La máxima de George Santayana parece especialmente apropiada en estos días en que el mundo árabe, desde Siria e Irak hasta Yemen y Libia, es una caldera de violencia; en que Afganistán está trabado en un combate con los talibán; en que zonas de África central están maldecidas por una competencia sangrienta -muchas veces de tipo étnica y religiosa- por los recursos minerales. Hasta la tranquilidad de Europa está en riesgo -prueba de ello es el conflicto separatista en el este de Ucrania, que antes del alto el fuego actual se había cobrado más de 6.000 vidas.

¿Qué explica este recurso al conflicto armado para solucionar los problemas del mundo? No hace mucho tiempo, la tendencia era hacia la paz, no hacia la guerra. En 1989, con el colapso del comunismo, Francis Fukuyama anunció "el fin de la historia", y dos años más tarde el presidente George W. Bush celebraba "un nuevo orden mundial" de cooperación entre las potencias del mundo.

En aquel momento, estaban en lo cierto. La Segunda Guerra Mundial, con una cantidad de bajas de por lo menos 55 millones de personas, había sido el punto culminante del salvajismo colectivo de la humanidad. Pero desde 1950 hasta 1989 -la guerra de Corea, la guerra de Vietnam, hasta el fin de la Guerra Fría- el promedio de muertes por conflictos violentos fue de 180.000 por año. En los años 1990, el número cayó a 100.000 por año. Y, en la primera década de este siglo, se redujo aún más, a unas 55.000 bajas por año -la tasa más baja de cualquier década en los 100 años anteriores y el equivalente a apenas unas 1.000 por año para el "conflicto armado promedio".

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