Iraqi woman looking downtrodden

战争更比和平多

温切斯特—“只有死人才看见过战争结束。”乔治·桑塔亚纳(George Santayana)的名言似乎特别契合今天,阿拉伯世界——从叙利亚和伊拉克到也门和利比亚——已经成为一口暴力坩埚;阿富汗深陷与塔利班的战斗中;多个中非国家饱受争夺矿产资源的血性竞争(常常与种族/宗教有关)的诅咒。甚至欧洲的宁静也饱受威胁——东乌克兰分裂冲突就是明证,在最近的停火协议达成时已让6,000多人丧生。

如何解释这一用武装冲突解决世界问题的做法?不久前,世界趋势还是和平而非战争。1989年,共产主义的崩溃让弗朗西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama)宣布“历史的终结”,两年后,老布什总统庆祝世界大国间互相合作的“新世界秩序”。

当时他们都是对的。第二次世界大战卷走了至少5,500万条人命,是人类历史上集体暴行的最高峰。但从1950年到1989年——从朝鲜战争到越南战争再到冷战结束——平均每年暴力冲突死亡人数为180,000人。20世纪90年代,这一数字下降到每年100,000人。而在21世纪第一个十年,这一数字继续下降至每年大约55,000人——比此前100年中的任何一个十年都要低,相当于“平均武装冲突”每年只有略多于1,000

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