Politics

越南与新财富困境

Feb 28, 2019 Tran Le Thuy

河南——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩在河内举行第2次峰会5天前，两位前越南通讯部长被捕，并以“涉及管理和公共资本滥用的违法行为被起诉。”据称，这两名官员以超过估值4倍的价格批准一家国有电信公司收购一家私营电视制作机构，并因此给国家造成了约3.07亿美元的损失。

同样，几个月前，两名警察部副部长、一名交通部长和一名前任国家石油公司负责人均因向私营企业亏损出售国有财产而遭到起诉。总体而言，上述案例反映了高水平的国家占领——这是一种在前苏联国家普遍存在的腐败现象，势力庞大的私人主体利用内部人员来获得对公共机构和资产的控制。

越南开始开放经济时几乎不允许私人所有权，这一点与朝鲜非常相像。但在30年后，像许多发展中国家一样，越南同样无法避免追求财富的精英们所产生的不利影响。有证据显示，强势私人企业对国内政策产生了过度的影响。越南前主席 Trýõng Tấn Sang在人民日报刊发的一篇评论文章显示，越南现在面临比共产党执政70年历史上任何时候都更严重的腐败现象。“执政者和寻租者相互勾结滥用国家政策，”他写道。“他们所安排的商业交易非常有利于某些个人和团体，但却在扰乱经济的同时对国家预算造成不可估量的损失。”

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j. von Hettlingen Mar 3, 2019

Tran Le Thuy highlights how Marxism and capitalism had brought economic growth to Vietnam. It had gone from being one of the poorest places on earth to one of southeast Asia's success stories. Putting ideology aside, officials are pragmatic and their citizens bullish. But the country is mired in rampant corruption and rising inequality. According to a 2014 Transparency International report Vietnam is seen as one of the world’s most corrupt countries, doing worse than 118 others .
The author says, its “mix of one-party governance and market economics has been held up as a model for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to emulate.” But North Korea has seen a resurgence of a market economy since Kim Jong-un took the helm in December 2011. While the majority of people live in poverty, there is a growing middle class with money to spend and free time to enjoy. Given the similarities, there is a risk that North Korea might end up like Vietnam.
Vietnam converted to a market economy in 1987, and had joined ever since the Association of South-east Asian Nations in 1995, signing an trade agreement with the US in 1999, which enabled trade to take off. In 2007, it joined the World Trade Organisation. Between 2007 and 2017, the country‘s wealth grew by 210%.
The number of “super-rich” grows much faster than that in China and India. There is also a middle class surge, but the countryside is still very poor. The disparity in wealth between urban and rural Vietnam is wide. But what worries some leaders more is too much economic liberalisation, which they fear would weaken their power base.
Despite pursuing economic reform, the ruling Communist Party shows little willingness to give up its monopoly on political power. It actively suppresses political dissent and religious freedom. Rights groups have singled out Hanoi's treatment of ethnic minority hill tribe people. Amnesty International said in a 2011 report that more than a dozen activists were convicted in faulty trials simply because they had peacefully voiced criticism of government policies'.
Inspired by Singapore and the Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden – the world’s least corrupt countries, the author says there is political will to forge reforms. She points out that many “nouveaux riches” have enriched themselves “by taking advantage of loopholes in the governance system,” because there are no “clear regulations” that define “property ownership and conflicts of interest on the part of public officials.”
Public servants are poorly paid in Vietnam. Even the prime minister “earns only around $750 per month.” Singapore pays government employees and politicians fair and realistic wages and salaries that match private sector earnings, in an effort to prevent them from becoming corrupt. In return citizens can demand the highest standards of ethics and performance.
Meanwhile, the leadership seeks “to move from a model based on cheap labor and capital-intensive, high-pollution, industrial-based investment to one based on advanced technologies and services, which would ensure more sustainable and equitable growth.” With an equivalent of nearly 6% of its GDP spent on education – high by global standards – Vietnam invests heavily in human resources, and its urban pupils perform well on education rankings.
In order to secure political stability and social peace, the author says “the Party’s leaders seem to have recognized that flagrant corruption and rapidly rising inequality pose a threat to their legitimacy.” Occasionally there are demonstrations by farmers who have been thrown off their land, or workers angry about their rockbottom wages. People also complain about corruption, bureaucracy and the incompetence of petty potentates.
“Yet it remains to be seen if the current enforcement efforts will actually lead to meaningful political reforms, stronger safeguards against corruption, and clearer regulations for property ownership, so that the rich no longer have to rely on insiders to accumulate and protect their wealth.” With its one-party system, Vietnam is firmly under control and there is too little opposition that poses a real threat to the leadership.
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henry winn Mar 1, 2019

Although the author failed to mention Vietnam's very low poverty rate (-7%) and more equitable wealth distribution than her peers of the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.... they are the unique features of socialist-oriented free market economy that NK can follow. Vietnam is not at the crossroads but a continuation of what worked and intelligent social-economic adjustments where requires - corruption eradication included! Furthermore, what this Trump-Kim summit points to, is how important national unification, sovereignty and independence are to peaceful development - a very developed and strong South Korea can only watch from the sideline, an American president deciding their future!
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