Venezuela v pravé poledne

Patnáctého prosince bude se bude ve Venezuele hlasovat o nové ústavě. Jednohlasným ano dá venezuelský národ prezidentu Chávezovi najevo svou rozhodnou podporu. Pokud naopak národ řekne ne, přivodí tak celé zemi chaos a obnoví moc parlamentu, o kterou jej Chávez připravil. Jinými slovy, nesouhlas bude povelem k puči.

Venezuela se potýká nejen s politickými, ale i s hospodářskými problémy. Všichni už delší dobu napjatě čekají, jak tento politický boj dopadne; dnes navíc všichni napjatě čekají, pro jakou ekonomiku se Chávez rozhodne. Překvapí otevřeným, efektivním a stabilním ekonomickým programem? Nebo se z něj vyklube represivní statista, který horkou jehlou sešívá trhliny v chatrném hospodářství a vyhýbá se zásadním problémům? Vzhledem k jeho holedbavému politickému stylu, vojenské minulosti a “jurskému” týmu poradců, který jej obklopuje, se lidé obávají nejhoršího.

Dnešní Venezuela není outsiderem v pravém slova smyslu. Pohybuje se sice na samém okraji ekonomické propasti, ale ve skutečnosti existují jen dvě věci, které venezuelské hospodářství ohrožují: vysoký domácí dluh (nemluvě o restrikcích, díky nimž spočívá dluh na bedrech místního bankovního sektoru) a nadhodnocená místní měna (viz tabulka). Venezuela se dále nachází uprostřed neblahého cyklu, kdy po kruté recesi nadešel rok bez výraznějšího růstu. Vznikla tím potřeba větších státních výdajů, která obvykle stojí u vzniku hospodářského propadu. Na druhé straně je třeba říci, že Venezuela je producentem ropy, a pokud ceny neklesnou pod 20 dolarů, vypadá výhledově venezuelská obchodní bilance povzbudivě, a to i navzdory reálnému směnnému kurzu. Rozpočet není sice nijak slavný, není ale ani kdovíjak děsivý.

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