People scavange for food in the streets of Caracas

Politics

重大变故中的委内瑞拉

Jan 2, 2018 Ricardo Hausmann

剑桥——委内瑞拉危机正在从一场灾难残酷无情地转化为超出任何人的想象。痛苦、人类灾难和破坏之严重已经足以促使国际社会重新思考如何提供帮助。

两年前，我曾警告委内瑞拉即将发生饥荒，就像1932到1933年乌克兰的大饥荒一样。12月17日，《纽约时报》头版头条刊发了这场人为灾难的实景照。

7月，我曾描述过委内瑞拉经济灾难史无前例的性质，记录了产量、收入、生活与健康水平的崩溃性下滑。我引用的一个最有说服力的数据也许就是以最廉价卡路里计算的最低工资（普通工人所挣得的中位数工资），该数据已经从2012年5月的每天52，854卡路里下降到2017年5月的仅7，005卡路里——根本不够支撑一个五口之家的生活。

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Stopping Venezuela’s Harvest of Sorrow

Economics 6

Stopping Venezuela’s Harvest of Sorrow

Ricardo Hausmann compares the country's situation today to that in Ukraine two years ago – and in 1933.
Venezuela’s Unprecedented Collapse
Federico Parra/Getty Images

Economics 26

Venezuela’s Unprecedented Collapse

Ricardo Hausmann points out that the 40% contraction in GDP since 2013 actually understates the economy's decline.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 47 Comments on this article

Krzysztof Worytkiewicz Feb 5, 2018

Ricardo Hausmann, you are not only a simple mind while an opportunistic careerist, but also a traitor to your own country (except it's oligarchy you stem from). You have no excuse of not knowing what an US led "regime change" operation is about.
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Clement Gavi Jan 28, 2018

Here we are! To which extend a world that has countless international institutions is unable to shape a global psychological that helps people living in it to understand how they should behave since they are parts of the whole?
One of the answers lies in the very contradictions of the so called international order.

How Venezuela can see itself in a world where a bloody dictatorship since 1967 such as Togo can lead UN Security Council where countries such as United States are permanent member with right of veto and which despite the sufferings it represents to generations is supported by those who see the conditions in Venezuela as unacceptable, worst, etc?

International community wouldn't have helped if it were coherent? UN Security Council isn't somehow an expression of International Community? If it can be led by a bloody dictatorship where since 1967 a very tyrannical regime kills, destroys, deprives, ruins generations through the supports it gets from others, then it is easy to understand the ineffectiveness of the so called International Community.

The truth is if the Venezuelan regime in brutalising its people do so in serving certain interests, it would get supports. Like the dictators of Togo who kill thousands can still lead UN Security Council. This is the truth in which we are.

May the Spirit of God come upon us.
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Jon Cloke Jan 10, 2018

Nice - of course, you do leave out two rather important points; 1) Venezuela has been pumping massive amounts of oil since 1920 or so and the elites who ran the country before Chavez failed to diversify the economy and were happy to see the highest rates of poverty in Latin America - why will a change of regime do anything to resolve this? 2) Whichever government comes next will have the same collapsed oil prices and undiversified economy to deal with - how will they escape the same issues Maduro is faced with, even if they wanted to (and the Right in Venezuela is about little more than getting its' oil back..)?
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Ted Peters Jan 10, 2018

The only power who could possibly intervene is the US... and there is currently no interest whatsoever among the US population in doing so. Change will only come when Maduro can no longer pay off all his generals, who shall then turn on one another and him.
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Luis Perez Jan 8, 2018

The invasion will occur only if the state owned oil company, PDVSA defaults in making interest payments to its bond holders in the U.S.
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STEPHEN LOUIE Jan 8, 2018

The people of Venezuela voted for their gov't on promises of "Free Stuff" Until the people learn Socialists always run out of other people's money, they will only chose another Savior with promises. It is greater kindness to let them learn the lesson, than deliver more unearned stuff.
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Per Kjeldaas Jan 7, 2018

Interesting that the word "socialist" does not appear at all in this article, when obviously that is the root cause!
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Luis Arenzana Jan 7, 2018

The international community has no reason to intervene militarily in the domestic affairs of a country that seats on the world's largest oil and gas reserves. There are plenty of failed states elsewhere but none have the natural resources wealth of Venezuela. The reason Chavez won several presidential elections is that that the regime that Dr Hausman evokes didn't solve most people's problems.
- Richard Graham Feb 13, 2018
  
  I couldn't agree more. The author of this article is nothing more than a born-again Yankee collaborator. The problems in Venezuela have nothing to do with Chavez or an impending humanitarian crisis, and everything to do with right-wing manipulation of the economy, particularly basic human needs.
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Alex Aslanidis Jan 7, 2018

Why should the West intervene? Whenever they do, they are accused of imperialism by the left (who are still sympathetic towards the Maduro regime, as evident by the comments on this article). Let the Venezuelans solve their own problems. As for the sanctions, they must stay. No point doing business with dictatorships.
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Jimm Roberts Jan 7, 2018

The optimal solution is a revolution by the people. Maduro needs to be replaced by someone who knows how wealth is created. He only know how to consume wealth
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Theo Koskoff Jan 7, 2018

How about, before jumping to regime change (peaceful or military), we try to usher in legitimate economic reform by staging multilateral negotiations with Venezuela and other Latin American countries (i.e. Columbia, Brazil,) as well as Mexico? And no, sanctions are not legitimate economic reform.
- mateusldr Jan 9, 2018
  
  Maduro seems suspicious of the current wave of "right-wing" politicians in South America like Dilma's impeachment in Brazil, Macri's election in Argentina, and seems not willing to engage in any negotiation at all. The group of Lima (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Canada and others) was formed as a common front to condemn his latest policies, so there seems to be a kind of tug of war between him and most of American nations.
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- Luis Arenzana Jan 7, 2018
  
  I'm sure you meant Colombia
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Theo Koskoff Jan 7, 2018

Is this guys actually comparing Venezuela today to Nazi-controlled France, Holland, and Belgium? The stupidity of this comparison is beyond belief. Yikes.
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victor valdivia Jan 6, 2018

Una persona cercana a mi era de Tachira en San cristobal, gran parte del problema radica en que muchos venezolanos aun no aceptan su realidad, pero creo que el final de esta historia la intervención internacional, sera inevitable.
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Paul Friesen Jan 4, 2018

Recent experience with this sort of intervention is not good. Think Libya, Iraq. Running a poor country is not easy, as the U.S. found out in Iraq. It proved utterly inept at solving all the problems. I would not bet on anyone stepping in and doing a better job than Maduro. Could easily be worse, as with Iraq.
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Godfree Roberts Jan 4, 2018

If it's true that "the Venezuelan crisis is moving relentlessly from catastrophic to unimaginable. The level of misery, human suffering, and destruction has reached a point where the international community must rethink how it can help," the people responsible are the Venezuelan right wing, who began by sabotaging PDVSA as soon as they lost their first election and have continued through terrorism and dirty tricks ever sine.
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Oswaldo Guerreiro Jan 3, 2018

I’ve found most of the comments very naif in that overlooks the fact that it is not simply a local narco dictatorship but one which is supported by a communist invasion by Cuba and two of the most powerful countries in the world; Russia and China.
- Steve Hurst Jan 4, 2018
  
  Have you ever been in a warzone?
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Jorge Hernández Jan 3, 2018

Giving the multiple foreign economic interests in Venezuela, i.e., Russia, China, and Cuba, the international solution resembles more the US liberating Venezuela.
- Andrew (Andy) Crow Jan 7, 2018
  
  You think maybe the US is the good guys here?
  
  This is US foreign policy writ large. Collateral damage in the global oil wars. The mere fact that you point to China, Russia and Cuba as the villains speaks volumes.
  
  Any appeal to intervention by the 'International Community' is hogwash. The US does not belong to any international community therefore there isn't one. We have one maverick disintegrating 'Superpower' versus an uncoordinated rest of the World.
  
  The resolution will be long (most of the 21st Century) and very messy.
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Carlos Garcia Jan 3, 2018

Ya las opciones democraticas se han acabado y no hay probabilidad de que se cumplan las pocas que quedan, estamos llegando al llegadero, al punto sin retorno. Ahora los lideres de la oposicion sabran leer este momento historico que les toco y tendran los suficientes pantalones largos para tomar una decision de esa envergadura?
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ajcamgasdas_2 Jan 3, 2018

Al fin alguien dice algo sensato, si esto se hubiera hecho hace tiempo cuantos muertos no nos habríamos ahorrado? cuantas violaciones y torturas por parte de la dictadura habrían sido detenidas
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Alexander Dow Jan 3, 2018

Mr. Hausmann,

I have great respect for you and commend you for the dedication to Venezuwla and to finding a solution-any solution- to our current predicament.

However, I have two main gripes with your solution. The first is that it requires significant approval from the governments in the region. The plan hinges on this. So, it probably requires the opposition to exhaust any other method, such as a negotiation with international supervision.
- Alexander Dow Jan 3, 2018
  
  Moreover, the second and more inportant issue I have is over the legality. I have very little knowledge over the international rules, but I have read some of the Venezuelan Constitution several times over and have some doubts. The NA can depose the President, although the exact process for that is very vague. In theory, I believe they did so last year. However, if a president is deposed within the last two years of his presidency, the role falls to yhe Vicepresident for the remainder of the term. Of course, come election time, the people choose a new government. If the Vice-President is also deposed, then it would fall to the NA Speaker, in theory, although the constitution is not all that clear. Do you propose that this be the legal process to follow? It is the only way I can see that makes sense—> censure and remove the vicepresident, claim abandonment and depose the president, and then hand the power to the AN Speaker.
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- Alexander Dow Jan 3, 2018
  
  Moreover, the second and more inportant issue I have is over the legality. I have very little knowledge over the international rules, but I have read some of the Venezuelan Constitution several times over and have some doubts. The NA can depose the President, although the exact process for that is very vague. In theory, I believe they did so last year. However, if a president is deposed within the last two years of his presidency, the role falls to yhe Vicepresident for the remainder of the term. Of course, come election time, the people choose a new government. If the Vice-President is also deposed, then it would fall to the NA Speaker, in theory, although the constitution is not all that clear. Do you propose that this be the legal process to follow? It is the only way I can see that makes sense—> censure and remove the vicepresident, claim abandonment and depose the president, and then hand the power to the AN Speaker.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Alexander Dow Jan 3, 2018
  
  Moreover, the second and more inportant issue I have is over the legality. I have very little knowledge over the international rules, but I have read some of the Venezuelan Constitution several times over and have some doubts. The NA can depose the President, although the exact process for that is very vague. In theory, I believe they did so last year. However, if a president is deposed within the last two years of his presidency, the role falls to yhe Vicepresident for the remainder of the term. Of course, come election time, the people choose a new government. If the Vice-President is also deposed, then it would fall to the NA Speaker, in theory, although the constitution is not all that clear. Do you propose that this be the legal process to follow? It is the only way I can see that makes sense—> censure and remove the vicepresident, claim abandonment and depose the president, and then hand the power to the AN Speaker.
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Nahyr Casso Jan 3, 2018

1. How did you arrive at the number of daily calories?...minimum monthly wage is roughly 3 USD (as of today). That's about 10 cents daily...
2. The National Assembly appointed the judges and they all had to run away from the country. There is an obvious political struggle in between the parties ruling inside the National Assembly. Plus many representatives are being persecuted and are currently in hiding.
3. How would you implement effectively Maduro's et al. impeachments without any judicial nor military support inside the country? I mean, people starve everyday and the military keep on trafficking their drugs and being the heads of the executive government. Wouldn't it be safer to let this task in the hands of the Supreme Court acting from the OAS?
4. When Pence exposed the idea to LA countries back in mid 2017, all of them said no to military intervention. If there is no quorum, how can the NA impeach and ask others for help?
5. I love your article. Still I think the problem is complex beyond my imagination. Venezuela is part of an international axis trafficking with drugs and terrorists. It became a bridge to distribute illegal stuff (arms, drugs, terrorits) along with Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, many Caribbean Islands, Syria, Lybia, Iran, Russia, China. It is a problem of world proportions and a hemispheric catastrophe. I do agree about the urgent need of an international military intervention. But a new government would have to deal with this too.
6. I do see Maduro's government is just as evil as any of the ugliest dictatorships the world has witnessed. I can only hope for the world to open its eyes.
7. Exchange controls, hands on the central bank and local bank acquisitions have been the main tools for these crooks to launder money, and impoverish people, and hence remain in power. How about ending this? The people could just burn down all the bolivares useless bills, and start transactions only using USD. What would happen then? It is scary to see Maduro's government along with Putin's are already considering cryptocurrencies as a solution for their sanctions. They rebalance over and over again....
- Andrew (Andy) Crow Jan 7, 2018
  
  American Prohibition of Alcohol in the 1920s produced gangland Chicago.
  
  In a globalised world the US 'War on Drugs' has turned swathes of South America into a globalised gangland. Let's not pretend this is some sort of accident. This is policy.
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- Andrew (Andy) Crow Jan 7, 2018
  
  American Prohibition of Alcohol in the 1920s produced gangland Chicago.
  
  In a globalised world the US 'War on Drugs' has turned swathes of South America into a globalised gangland. Let's not pretend this is some sort of accident. This is policy.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Andrew (Andy) Crow Jan 7, 2018
  
  American Prohibition of Alcohol in the 1920s produced gangland Chicago.
  
  In a globalised world the US 'War on Drugs' has turned swathes of South America into a globalised gangland. Let's not pretend this is some sort of accident. This is policy.
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Sonny Cheeba Jan 3, 2018

Haussmann argues quite elegantly regarding his desire to see legitimate military intervention by foreign forces in Venezuela to forestall the coming “man-made famine”, and he should know about this due to his direct involvement in formulating economic policies for the Venezuelan government in the late 1980s that led to a “man-made famine”: the Caracazo.
This “man-made famine” was resolved in a similar manner to the solution proffered by Haussmann here: “military intervention”. An intervention that left thousands dead in the aftermath.
The biggest consequence of this though was that it eventually led to the election of Chavez which must really stick in Haussmann’s craw as he and his neo-liberal cronies were kicked out of power replaced by Chavez and his allies. One elite class replaced with a new one.
With Maduro floundering the old elites are circling like vultures.
Haussmann may claim to not want a military coup, but is his solution of a military intervention led by a coalition of the Americas and European nations a better option?
He claims it would be like the liberation of Europe from the Nazis, and legitimate as it could be requested by the National Assembly. To assume that the people of Venezuela, not the minority of anti-government protestors who garner all the Western world’s media attention, will give up the gains they have made in the last two decades to return to Haussmann’s Venezuela of “man-made famines” and welcome his foreign military force he is making the same kind of ridiculous claims that Bush and Blair made in the run up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. That worked out well for corporations that “rebuilt” the country along US dictated capitalist friendly development models (neoliberalism), but not for the Iraqis who have lost their lives, or those that live in a state of sectarian conflict, insecurity and poverty far worse then under Hussein’s iron fist.
Haussmann’s real hope, like Bush and Blair, is for the rebuilding of the Venezuelan economy along the lines of neoliberal development, not helping the starving, that he espoused when in government back in the 1980s, which directly led to a “man-made famine”, and does presently from his ivory tower position at Harvard. The danger is that the humanitarian intervention narrative that Haussmann is tapping to legitimise his view has been highly effective in the United States & Europe over the last two decades in advancing military intervention: actions that have usually been calamitous for the poor people living in those parts of the world: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria to name a few. And that is why Hausman’s, and his ilk’s, specious claims must be called out and contested.
- Nahyr Casso Jan 5, 2018
  
  I think you need to rethink your words and probably undertake some more research about Venezuela. The military coup led by Hugo Chavez solved absolutely nothing really, and yes, it led to tons of deaths. Actually, it ultimately led to even all the deaths last year during street protests. There has never been in Venezuela, a rich country (not a poor one), nothing of the sort of what we are unfortunately witnessing today: The planned dehumanization of its people through evil controls intended to keep them humiliated and worried and away from a real possibility of organization and resistance. Similar in a way to the Nazis undertakings against the Jewish people, and simply put just as evil. Plus, the co-optation of Chavez and his cronies (who really ARE cronies engaged in illegal activities), the authoritarianism in the mask of democracy after taking over all the powers under the executive grip (legislative, electoral, judicial), the amount of money Venezuela received in the past two decades, the ugly alliances with the crooks of the world (Kim Jong-Un, Raul and Fidel Castro, Vladimir Putin, Ghadaffi and Hussein back when they were alive, etc.), the amount of political prisoners under torture, the amount of people being persecuted for their political beliefs, the government using its oil infrastructure and money to deal and distribute drugs and terrorists inside America, did NOT occurred and never ever happened either when Mr. Haussman was part of the government and never before Hugo Chavez. How can you really compare Venezuela, a 90% Catholic country, to Irak or Afghanistan? How can you compare Venezuela, the land of Simon Bolivar, a land of freedom, to Syria?. How are you so sure this is a minority? If it were a minority, why wouldn't the government go to elections?
  
  Venezuela does need international intervention because the military are sequestered by drug lords and its people cannot trust them and are weakened, phisically, emotionally, mentally. There is no possibility to get rid of these crooks through negotiation. Diplomacy is a long road leading nowhere. It might be too late when American countries realize how much damage their indifference have caused. I sincerely hope it is not the case.
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- Steve Hurst Jan 3, 2018
  
  Sonny C
  'legitimate military intervention by foreign forces'... Yes, how very imperialistic. Maduro has no option other than to pump oil and hope not to default to China. If Maduro goes Venezuela has no option other than to pump oil and hope not to default. What is notable in the article - written by an economist - is the entire lack of assessment of what economically can be done to change that.
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- Carlos Rodriguez Jan 3, 2018
  
  It seems you know your share of Venezuelan history in the 80-90's. But the phrase 'the minority of anti-government protestors' exhibits an ABSOLUTE DISCONNECTION/IGNORANCE of the current reality in Venezuela. Can't say I'm surprised vis-à-vis your fixation with of neoliberalism when current economic challenges (even those back then) have to do with much more complex issues. As a Venezuelan, I invite you to visit the country so you can built upon a more realistic view of the situation. If I hadn't flee the country like some 2 million people or so, I'll tour you myself.
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Francesco D'Allessandro Jan 3, 2018

Also the creation of a volunteer force of Latin Americans to topple the regime could be another option. In the late 70's in the fight against the Somoza dictatorship, Hugo Spadafora Franco, a Panamanian guerrilla commander organized a brigade of volunteers to fight the tyrant. In the 80's he began creating a new force to engage the Sandinistas who at the time had hijacked the Nicaraguan revolution. Unfortunately, he was murdered by General Noriega and the second brigade never materialized as a fighting force. Nevertheless, in both cases there were many volunteers ready to take arms against totalitarian strains in Central America.
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Francesco D'Allessandro Jan 3, 2018

Thinking outside the box is what is needed to liberate Venezuela from the grasp of a narco dictatorship that has no regards whatsoever for the welfare of its people. Your idea if put into action could prove to be the catalyst to abolish once and for all this murderous regime. Now whether our current crop of Latin America would be warm to this conception no one knows. At times it seems that many leaders of democratic governments across the continents allow the Maduro cartel to flourish and continue on its erratic behavior. Panama was once in the grip of a similar situation when General Manuel Antonio Noriega ruled it like his personal fiefdom. It took intervention to depose of this despicable political military gangster. Observe Panama nowadays. Such a change from what it was once under the Noriega thuggish dominion. Hopefully your post will resonate among those in a position to realize such a possibility and execute it.
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Cuchicuchi Cuchicuchi Jan 3, 2018

FINALLY SOMEBODY MAKES SOME SENSE, the Venezuelan government has closed all peaceful options, the countries situation can escalate to a much wider problem where it destabilizes the region and houses US enemies, from countries (specially Russia, Iran and China whom the government has more than flirted with) to groups of people as the government has housed Alkaeda members. It is also becoming an example to other regional (Bolivia, Nicaragua) and maybe worldwide leaders on how to break from democracy and become a dictatorship while the whole world sits powerless, this can have many copycats.
1) Yes the elected National Assembly should depose Maduro and his whole government as they have continuously broken the constitution, this they could do in coordination with the elected Supreme Court judges that had to leave the country.
2) Yes the international coalition should be composed of Latin American countries and the US.
3) Yes the elected National Assembly should name a provisional government and call on free and fair elections.
The Venezuelan government is hugely unpopular, as it has brought repression and poverty to the country. A well presented and coordinated response followed by prompt free and fair elections would be backed by the Venezuelan people.
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Ronald Rivas Jan 2, 2018

La oposición parece querer lo mismo que el gobierno oficial: el poder a toda costa.
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Luis Eduardo Escobar Jan 2, 2018

I share Hausmann´´ s sense of desperation, but there is no legitimacy to direct foreign military intervention. The objective cannot validate the means. The Venezuelan oppositon would descend to Maduro´´´ s level. Finally it doe not respond the question of who would rule. Would Trump designate a US general? A new MacArthur? The inconceivable remains just that.
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Steve Hurst Jan 2, 2018

1. Armed invasion by foreign countries following legal nitpicking that international law does not apply does not usually have happy outcomes.
2. Ownership by internal protest is highly risky but more plausible.
3.WW2 is totally irrelevant since the problem was not manifest internally in France, Belgium and the Netherlands but is in Venezuela as the government there was elected, but I suppose that is a nicety of international law.
4. Venezuelan borders are porous meaning people can and do leave the country.
5. Humanitarian aid to surrounding countries to assist is more likely
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