Yanis Varoufakis EU Council Eurozone/Flickr

El gran juego de Varoufakis

MUNICH – Los economistas especializados en la teoría del juego saben que nunca basta con un Plan A, sino que también hay que idear y desarrollar un Plan B creíble que haga avanzar las negociaciones en torno a ese Plan A. El ministro de finanzas de Grecia, Yanis Varoufakis, lo sabe muy bien. Como “peso pesado” ungido por el gobierno griego, se encuentra trabajando en un Plan B (el potencial abandono de la eurozona), mientras el Primer Ministro Alexis Tsipras queda disponible para el Plan A (una extensión del acuerdo crediticio a Grecia y la renegociación de los términos de su rescate). En cierto sentido juegan al clásico juego del “policía bueno y el policía malo”, y hasta ahora con bastantes buenos resultados.

Dos elementos dan forma al Plan B. Primero, simple provocación, apuntando a encolerizar a los ciudadanos griegos y elevar las tensiones entre el país y sus acreedores. Los griegos tienen que creer que se están salvando de una grave injusticia a fin de seguir confiando en su gobierno durante el difícil periodo que vivirían tras una salida de la eurozona.

Segundo, el gobierno griego está elevando los costes del Plan B para la contraparte, al permitir a sus ciudadanos que retiren sus capitales. Si lo quisiera, podría contener esta tendencia con un enfoque más conciliador o detenerla por completo con la introducción de controles al capital. Sin embargo, con ello se debilitaría su posición negociadora, y esa no es una opción para ellos.

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