Yanis Varoufakis EU Council Eurozone/Flickr

Il “Grande Gioco” Di Varoufakis

MONACO – Gli esperti di teoria dei giochi sanno che un piano A non è mai sufficiente. Si deve anche elaborare e proporre un piano B credibile – la minaccia implicita che fa avanzare i negoziati sul piano A. Lo sa molto bene il ministro delle finanze della Grecia, Yanis Varoufakis. Visto che il governo greco viene ribattezzato come “il cattivo della situazione”, egli sta lavorando al Piano B (una potenziale uscita dalla zona euro), mentre il primo ministro Alexis Tsipras si rende disponibile per il piano A (un’estensione sull’accordo di finanziamento della Grecia, e una rinegoziazione dei termini del suo salvataggio). In un certo senso, stanno giocando al classico gioco del “poliziotto buono/poliziotto cattivo” - e, finora, con grande effetto.

Il Piano B è composto da due elementi chiave. In primo luogo, vi è una semplice provocazione, volta a fare agitare i cittadini greci e quindi ad accrescere le tensioni tra il paese ed i suoi creditori. I cittadini greci devono credere di poter evitare una grave ingiustizia se si vuole che continuino a fidarsi del loro governo durante il difficile periodo che potrebbe seguire un’uscita dalla zona euro.

In secondo luogo, il governo greco fa lievitare i costi del Piano B per la controparte, consentendo la fuga di capitali dei suoi concittadini. Se volesse, il governo potrebbe contenere questa tendenza con un approccio più conciliante, o arrestarla del tutto, con l’introduzione di controlli sui capitali. Ma così facendo indebolirebbe la sua posizione negoziale, il che non è auspicabile.

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