Yanis Varoufakis EU Council Eurozone/Flickr

瓦鲁法基斯的大博弈

慕尼黑—博弈论专家知道,只有A计划永远是不行的。你必须制定和事先布局可信的B计划——推动A计划谈判的隐含威胁。希腊财政部长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)对于这一点心知肚明。作为希腊政府推出的“重磅”,在总理齐普拉斯出面谈判A计划时(延长希腊的贷款协议并重新谈判援助计划条件),瓦鲁法基斯正致力于B计划(可能退出欧元区)。从某种角度讲,他们在玩“好警察/坏警察”的经典博弈——并且到目前为止收效甚好。

B计划有两个关键要素。首先是简单的挑衅,旨在煽动希腊公民,从而加剧希腊与其债权人的紧张。希腊公民必然认为,如果他们在因为退出欧元区而导致的困难时期继续信任他们的政府,就可以摆脱严重的不公。

其次,希腊政府正在推高B计划对另一端的成本,办法是允许资本随希腊公民外逃。如果选择如此,希腊政府可以用更加安抚性的方针遏制这一趋势,或通过引入资本管制一刀切解决这一问题。但这样做会削弱其谈判立场,而这不是选项之一。

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