La partición inevitable de Afganistán

NUEVA DELHI – Estados Unidos, todavía atrapado en una guerra prolongada en Afganistán que ha demandado un costo asombroso en sangre y dinero, en los próximos días iniciará conversaciones de paz formales con los talibán, su principal opositor en el campo de batalla (aparentemente a pesar de una oposición a último momento del presidente afgano, Hamid Karzai). Estados Unidos está decidido a retirar sus fuerzas después de más de una década de combate, de modo que las conversaciones en Doha, Qatar, están esencialmente destinadas a poder hacerlo "honradamente".

De qué manera el fin de las operaciones de combate lideradas por Estados Unidos incidirá en el futuro de Afganistán va a afectar la seguridad de los países vecinos y los que no lo son. Aquí el interrogante más importante es si el destino de Afganistán, que fue creado como un intercesor entre la Rusia zarista y la India británica, será -o debería ser- diferente del de Irak y Libia (otras dos creaciones imperiales donde Estados Unidos ha tenido una intervención militar en los últimos años).

La intervención militar extranjera puede provocar un cambio de régimen, pero evidentemente no puede restablecer el orden mediante un gobierno centralizado. Irak ha sido dividido en regiones chiitas, suníes y kurdas, mientras que Libia parece encaminada hacia un acuerdo territorial tripartito y tribal. En Afganistán también una división "suave" al estilo iraquí puede ser el mejor desenlace posible.

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