Неизбежный распад Афганистана

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ. США, по-прежнему ведущие затяжную войну в Афганистане, которая стоит им огромной крови и денег, в ближайшие дни начнут официальные мирные переговоры с Талибаном – своим главным противником в этой войне (по-видимому, несмотря на то, что в последнюю минуту президент Афганистана Хамид Карзай высказался против этого). Поскольку США намерены вывести свои войска после более чем десяти лет войны, переговоры в г. Доха в Катаре, в основном, проводятся для того, чтобы они могли сделать это «с достоинством».

То, как окончание военных операций, руководимых США, сформирует будущее Афганистана, повлияет на безопасность соседних и дальних стран. Здесь самым важным вопросом является то, будет ли (или должна ли) судьба Афганистана, который был создан как буферная зона между царской Россией и Британской Индией, отличаться от судьбы Ирака и Ливии (двух других созданных империями стран, в которые США осуществляли военные вторжения в последние годы).

Иностранное военное вторжение может привести к смене режима, но очевидно, что оно не может привести к восстановлению порядка на основе центрального правительства. Ирак разделен во всем, кроме своего названия, на шиитские, суннитские и курдские регионы, а Ливия, по-видимому, направляется к аналогичному трехстороннему, племенному территориальному устройству. В Афганистане также «мягкий» распад в стиле Ирака может оказаться наилучшим возможным результатом.

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