L’inévitable découpage de l’Afghanistan

NEW DELHI – Les États-Unis, aujourd’hui encore enlisés en Afghanistan dans une guerre sans fin qui aura coûté un tribut humain et financier considérable, s’apprêtent dans les prochains jours à ouvrir des pourparlers de paix officiels avec les talibans, leur principal ennemi sur la champs de bataille (malgré semble-t-il l’opposition de dernière minute du président afghan Hamid Karzaï). L’Amérique étant déterminée à procéder au retrait de ses forces armées après plus d’une décennie de guerre, les discussions qui se tiendront à Doha, au Qatar, sont principalement destinées à lui permettre de se retirer de manière « honorable ».

La manière dont l’achèvement des opérations de combat sous commandement américain s’apprête à façonner l’avenir de l’Afghanistan sera déterminante pour la sécurité des pays voisins, comme d’un certain nombre d’États plus lointains. La question la plus importante est de savoir si le destin de l’Afghanistan, zone tampon mise en place entre la Russie tsariste et l’Inde britannique, sera – ou devrait être – différent de celui de l’Irak ou de la Lybie (deux autres créations de la puissance impériale, au sein desquelles les États-Unis sont intervenus militairement ces dernières années).

Si une intervention militaire étrangère peut influencer un changement de régime, elle ne peut clairement rétablir l’ordre sur la base d’un gouvernement centralisé. L’Irak a fait l’objet d’un partage qui ne dit pas son nom en trois régions, chiite, sunnite, et kurde, tandis que la Lybie semble s’orienter vers un arrangement territorial tripartite similaire, d’ordre tribal. En Afghanistan, une version « soft » du découpage à l’irakienne semble également constituer le meilleur dénouement possible.

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