阿富汗不可避免的分裂

新德里——深陷于旷日持久阿富汗战争的美国付出了惊人的生命财产代价,并将在未来日子里(不顾阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊最后时刻的反对)正式与主要战争对手塔利班启动和谈进程。因为已经决定在十余年战争后撤出部队,在卡塔尔首都多哈举行的谈判主要是让美国人“体面地”撤离。

如何结束以美国为首的作战行动既决定阿富汗的未来也影响周边及其他国家的安全局势。此处最重要的问题是曾扮演沙俄及英属印度间缓冲地带的阿富汗的命运会不会(或该不该)与伊拉克和利比亚(近年来美国干预的另外两个帝国产物)的命运有任何不同。

外国军事干预可以改朝换代,但显然不能重建中央政府控制的国内秩序。伊拉克除名义外已分成什叶、逊尼和库尔德三块区域,而利比亚似乎也正走向类似的三方部落领土安排。同样,像伊拉克那样的“软性”分裂或许是阿富汗可能面临的最佳结果。

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