stiglitz306_Rick LoomisGetty Image_qanon

美国在何种情况下才会输掉新冷战

Jun 17, 2022 Joseph E. Stiglitz

纽约—美国似乎进入到一场与中俄两国的新冷战之中。而美国领导人将这场对抗描述为民主与威权主义之间的抗争闻起来味道不对，尤其在同样这些领导人正在积极取悦像沙特阿拉伯这样全面人权侵犯国的时候。这样的虚伪表明这次的赌注至少部分有关全球霸权，而非价值观之争。

铁幕倒塌后的二十年里，美国显然仍占据全球霸主位置。但随后就爆发了被灾难性误导的中东战争、2008年金融危机、不平等现象加剧、阿片类药物大流行以及似乎使人们对美国经济模式优越性产生怀疑的其他危机。此外，在唐纳德·特朗普当选、美国国会未遂政变、多次爆发大规模枪击、共和党一心一意压制选民以及卡农等阴谋邪教兴起之间，有充分的证据表明，美国政治和社会生活的某些方面已经变得极为病态了。

当然，美国不希望让出王座。但无论采用何种官方指标，中国在经济上超越美国都是不可避免的。该国不仅人口是美国的超过4倍；其经济增长多年来也一直比美国快三倍多（事实上，早在2015年，中国在购买力平价指标方面就已经超越了美国）。

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Joseph E. Stiglitz

Writing for PS since 2001
310 Commentaries

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, is a former chief economist of the World Bank (1997-2000), chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and co-chair of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices. He is a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation and was lead author of the 1995 IPCC Climate Assessment.

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Elizabeth Pula Jun 23, 2022

It's not all quiet on the Western Front.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live/
Levinson very clearly states the real role of the dept. of Justice in the US. Now, if that message could just find a way to resonate where it really counts throughout the citizenry in the US, the loses could be tremendously minimized.
PS. The latest Supreme Court decision was a step to present real debate about the effects of legal decisions and why they matter in real life. People need to understand what they are doing during life is developing their conscience conscientiously or not. That takes real educational steps in real time.
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Ian Maitland Jun 22, 2022

Stiglitz would have you believe that US leaders are hypocritical when they portray the "new Cold war" as a confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism. Really it all boils down to a contest for global hegemony, not values, he says. The evidence -- the same leaders are courting Saudi Arabia.

Oh yeah? Stiglitz overlooks the fact that the world's democracies made common cause with Stalin in order to defeat Hitler. Indeed, Winston Churchill said he'd make a pact with the devil if that was what it took to destroy Hitler. So Churchill failed Stiglitz's smell test too? Don't be ridiculous.
- Ian Maitland Jun 22, 2022
  
  Isn't it funny that the country that Stiglitz calls racist and unequal is a magnet to millions of black, brown -- and white -- people? Apparently they know something that Stiglitz hasn't figured out.
  
  Then there is his claim that the US may be good at making bombers and missile systems but . . .
  
  But what? The US is far away the leader in developing medicines that save the lives of millions people the world over, including developing countries, but Stiglitz doesn't mention that except to complain that the U.S. prioritizes Americans in making vaccines available. Isn't that democracy in action?
  
  And if Stiglitz steals COVID-related intellectual property from drug companies where will the vaccines come from next time a pandemic strikes the world? The bunglers at CDC, FDA and NIH? Don't make me laugh.
  
  Women's reproductive rights? Stiglitz seems to be unaware that Europe regulates abortion far more strictly than the U.S.
  
  And surely he has seen enough to recognize that soft power grows out of the barrel of a gun? It isn't soft power that keeps Putin in power in Russia.
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Ray B Jun 20, 2022

The US has already lost the war; it's a matter of survival of the fittest. Great debt and the wokafication of all things social engineering has made the country weak, poor, and unfocused. Our school system is a mess run by the NEA, which cannot teach grade-level kids reading, writing, science and math. Teachers are more worried about time off, gender pronouns, and denying the science of women and men than producing functional kids for tomorrow's economy. The latest SCOTUS justice could not define a woman and still got approved. Our President is feeble, cannot ride a bike, finish a complete sentence, understand the basic rules of economics, and takes more time off than any President in history. Our big cities are unsafe and dysfunctional, making the killing fields of Afghanistan and Iraq look tame. We are an ugly house in the global neighborhood, but not the ugliest house. The US is broke and needs to fix our problems before we fix anyone else's problems. Buckle up EU after 76 years you're on your own, we have bigger fish to fry.
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Michael Sleet Jun 20, 2022

The article makes relatively decent points but it seems a bit dishonest. Many of America's problems are tied to one political party but Stiglitz can't seem to say that. Furthermore, he mentions Trump and America, again neglecting the same party. It makes it hard to prescribe treatment when the wrong diagnosis is made. He brushes aside China's problems as the Belt and Road initiative is flawed. The line about soft power is laughable particularly when he gets really close to applauding China, who does nothing of the sort. China and Russia prescribe to an autocratic model that virtually ignores human rights so it is in the world's best interest that they do not become hegemons. America is not perfect but there is a group who is actively working towards the aims Stiglitz wants. He would do better to acknowledge that the Republican Party is weakening America's status abroad as opposed to this piece, which gives a totally different impression.
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Peter Schaeffer Jun 19, 2022

In the US, the 'woke' run (de-facto) everything. As a consequence, the ability of the US to project power anywhere is quite low. A nation (such as the USA) that allows men to pretend to be women to cheat at sports) isn't going to inspire admiration or emulation. Just one example, but for now at least, the US isn't going to dominate/run much.
- K Harris Jun 20, 2022
  
  I agree, the US looks fundamentally unserious and consequently has a much weakened relationship with many areas around the world. It’s not just China, it’s Europe and the middle East as well. What happened to the much vaunted Biden foreign policy expertise?
  - Peter Schaeffer Jun 20, 2022
    
    I have a standard comment on this.
    
    "China is very good at building dams, the US is very good at enforcing PC, which country is going to dominate the 21st century?"
    
    Do we need to ask.
    - K Harris Jun 20, 2022
      
      China can certainly top the US in enforcing what’s politically correct. You don’t step out of line in China and you don’t voice opinions the party doesn’t care for. To dominate the 21st century, they’ll have to enforce their ideas of what’s politically correct over much more than just China. Think that’s likely?
      - Peter Schaeffer Jun 20, 2022
        
        I don't think China, can impose its system on the rest of the world (or much or it). However, they don't have to. What China can do it use its growing power to supplant the US. Let me use the Philippines as an example. Can China impose it's system in the Philippines? The answer is probably no. Has that prevented the Philippines from shifting to alliance with China (rather then the USA)? No.
        
        K Harris Jun 20, 2022
        
        Oh I don’t think it’s likely either, that was my point. It has to have control to impose its PC rules. Now if it had control of say, Taiwan, or even the Philippines, then yes it could certainly enforce its PC rules.
        
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Faruk Timuroglu Jun 19, 2022

A good lesson to U.S. policy makers from Joseph Stiglitz though in vain or too little avails!
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Robert Johnston Jun 19, 2022

The most insidious enemy is usually the enemy within.
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Ron Batten Jun 19, 2022

But it is an opportunity to forge new ties and rescue those countries from a Chinese stranglehold.
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Ron Batten Jun 19, 2022

With Russia as a fossil fuel provider and China as its main consumer, the energy transition also has a dimension of global superpower rivalry. If the US is more advanced in its energy supply than Russia/China, and if that supply is more sustainable, that would gove the US (and the EU) an advantage.
- K Harris Jun 20, 2022
  
  Agree, had the US maintained the energy independence it had prior to this administration, we would be in a much better position. Now Biden gets to go begging to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Europe made different mistakes, notably Germany, which under Merkel refused to even consider getting off the Russian energy.
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Ron Batten Jun 19, 2022

Russia is likely to become a Chinese sattelite country (if that hasn't already happened). The Chinese economy can use all the fossil fuels Russia can supply in the short to medium term.
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Ron Batten Jun 19, 2022

The WTO is based on the assumption that trade and manufacturing are done by private enterprise, not by the government. In China, the two are difficult to separate and have been since 1949. It is therfore doubtful that China has ever completely respected WTO rules.
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Ron Batten Jun 19, 2022

Russians do not trust their own vaccines. The Chinese do not either. In China the lockdowns have to take place because of low vaccination rates.
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Neil MacLean Jun 19, 2022

I respect Mr Stiglitz's comments but I think the problems in the US are really more fundamental. To me the problems go back to people's ideals and what they most value respect and seek. Vince Lombardi said "Winning isn't everything, It's the only thing". And advertisers would have you know you are what you own. And equal opportunity is all about ensuring that if you are at the bottom, it is YOUR fault. None of this attaches any particular value to human virtue or to the mere fact of being human. A looser in such a hard ball society cannot fall back on satisfaction with their own virtues (e.g. honesty) - that isn't really valued much by society. Instead you have the social media universe stoking your emotions in whatever views you favour to maximize your screen time. And in the context of such a hugely unequal society with no respect for losers it is hardly surprising it is all choked with hate and violence. And as artificial intelligence increasingly displaces labour by capital as the principal means of production these problems will only worsen. If the US is going down, it is a consequence of its own harsh materialistic values. Its lack of constancy as an ally is really a reflection of a self interested transactional orientation not really anchored to anything save "winning". That the Chinese and Russian governments are even worse is hardly a hopeful thought.
- K Harris Jun 20, 2022
  
  What country does not have a “self interested transactional orientation”?
  - Neil MacLean Jun 20, 2022
    
    It has to do with the time horizon over which one views things. The United States as it once was had the genius and generosity of spirit to undertake the Marshall Plan. That turned its once worst enemies into its most powerful allies. Self interested? Yes, but recognizing our broad connectedness of interests is at once generous but also wisely self interested. Contrast that with Trump denying Canada shipments of 3M masks it had purchased AND ALSO MADE POSSIBLE TO MANUFACTURE and separately imposing tariffs on Canada only legally justified because Canada was said to be a security threat to the US and Peter Navarro saying there was a special place in hell for Canada’s Prime Minister. What value enthusiasm of Fox News listeners?
    - K Harris Jun 20, 2022
      
      That doesn’t actually answer the question though. Do you believe Canada lacks a self interested transactional orientation? Obviously people could disagree on what precisely is self interested but there’s zero doubt that all countries operate in the same manner.
      
      3M is an interesting example for you to use. Not only did Canada import 166 million respirators from the US but 3M did indeed export US made respirators as well. 3M chairman and CEO Mike Roman had very high praise for the deal negotiated by Trump.
      - Neil MacLean Jun 20, 2022
        
        Nonsense. US behaviour has greatly changed. Maintaining short term shareholder value is the rationale for companies to financially contribute to politicians who would undermine US democracy denying the reality of Biden's electoral victory. The primacy of short term money over truth. And not everybody is the same. If you would contrast Norway with Canada in its approach to the oil industry Canada has squandered its benefits from oil revenues on low taxes whereas Norway has acted with a much longer term orientation maintaining high taxes and using oil revenues to build a massive long term investment fund for the nation. Canada in the beginning had the same investment fund idea but could not maintain the discipline, falling into short-term-advantage-itus. Absurd to say we are all the same.
        
        Neil MacLean Jun 21, 2022
        
        I guess my remarks have likely suggested a pretty good guess I'm Canadian. And I think about Americans reading what I have said and feeling resentment toward Canada. It likely won't help if I give a fuller picture of my views, but to be properly balanced I probably should. I have studied and lived in the US. I have lots of American relatives. I subscribe to the NY Times, subscribe to Bloomberg, and regularly watch the PBS Newshour which I revere. The best of the US is pretty hard to beat. But the values that used to dominate the US no longer prevail, though such values are certainly still present in a great many Americans. I always make it a point to be particularly gracious to American visitors to Canada as you are a valued neighbour. But I have little optimism for the future. Revered companies are financially supporting anti-democratic forces in your country and I fear there are no doubt a number of Canadian companies doing significant business in the US who are doing the same. The same forces that are tearing your country apart with hateful misinformation and misguided values are very much spilling over the border and toxifying Canada's politics. I think your democracy will be lost first and ours may well follow as, legally speaking, we are far more vulnerable to takeover by a tyrant thanks to the incredible notwithstanding clause of our constitution which prescribes a recipe for implementing dictatorship. Meanwhile are we to hope for nuclear winter to forestall our extinction by runaway climate change causing Canfield oceans to develop, expelling toxic gases into the atmosphere responsible for a number of large scale previous extinctions on this planet? These are not hopeful times as the world seeks to rev up its appetite for non-essential air travel and a vast increase in GHG emissions in the face of of a climate emergency. Rats are more successful at adapting to changed circumstances than we are as they are less vulnerable to falling for dreams of unreality created out of their imagination. And boy does that line invite a smack down by wishful thinkers!
        
        K Harris Jun 22, 2022
        
        It doesn’t much matter how what country you’re from. Nor does it change the fact that all countries operate as self-interested with a transactional orientation. The US is no different, regardless of anyone expecting it to be. It’s not a matter of balancing views, you’re fully entitled to whatever your views are. It is instead a matter of facing reality. Not sure why anyone would resent Canada. It may be good to remember that we don’t all agree on what’s in anyone or any country’s best interest. I doubt that’s any different depending on what country one is from.
        
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        K Harris Jun 20, 2022
        
        Every country acts in what it sees as its self interest. Every country is transactional. Pretending otherwise is simply naive. As is pretending that everyone agrees on what’s in the best interest of any particular country.
        
        Neil MacLean Jun 20, 2022
        
        Factual examples of short term and longer term views do nothing to dissuade a true believer.
        
        K Harris Jun 20, 2022
        
        Neither does pointing out that not everyone agrees on what is in the best interest of a country.
        
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- Omar Luquin Jun 20, 2022
  
  +1
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Peter McLoughlin Jun 18, 2022

War is never about good v evil, democracy v autocracy: it is always about power. That pattern is clear from history. But power is an illusion. Every empire eventually faces the war it seeks to avoid, its own collapse. Naturally, everybody wants to avoid a third world war. The coming conflict between these two titans will complete the syllogism. Beijing v Washington is about global hegemony, not values – as always.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 18, 2022

RE:"To come out on top, we must convince the rest of the world to buy not just our products, but also the social, political, and economic system we’re selling."
They caught that drift quite a while ago. The only product the US is shipping out are empty cargo containers back to China. China is letting them float like rubber duckies the latest in unclaimed art forms. Maybe some pirates will float by close enough to take a pot shot or two and let the hot air escape. They have enough production within their own boundaries for the rest of the world except the US. The rest of the world can get along fine without the US, which kinda creates a predicament for a few monopolies in the US, even the front operations that claim to be US, when in reality they are not even owned anymore by the US, since any real asset value is effectively nil. The US real folks are only holding "debt". That is not a good thing/place for any real stakeholder to be. Of course all the real stakeholders have known that little detail for quite a while, more than even forty years. The US real folks have been really slow to recognize the important moves in the great game. The "stockholders" are not "stakeholders". That is not very good at all for the US real folks.
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 18, 2022

Let's see some big fat "T" keep his mouth shut, get his hands dirty, Let's see him actually performing. Let's see him doing some real manual labor at the Federal Minimum wage if not less for a real change. Let's get down to the real nitty gritty bits in real time for a real change. How about that? Or, in fact how about it? Can time tell any thing to any thing else? Of course, I could use male, or masculine, and female or feminine word and pronoun choices to be fair to all of God's creatures, and appropriately/discretely gender blind.
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 18, 2022

Common sense and real work in the real world to create positive change by actually improving living conditions does work. Too many are just grabbing the money and running around like chickens without their heads, like kings without acknowledging that yeah, you really have to do something and not blame every one else, and starve every one else cuz the kings, queens, and royalty are too greedy and really don't know how to do anything. Playing games does not plow fields, does not clean sewer lines, and does not channel clean water. Hard work does. Real people do that type of work. However, the phonies want to stick their noses up at real people, ostracize them, insult them, steal from them left and right and still make them pay for the insulting process. Common sense works. BS does not do any thing. BS piles up and if you don't get your face shoved into it, and if you can't keep avoiding it, as the pile won't move, you wind up getting buried one way or another. Time does not heal all all the time, if hardly not at all, and that's most of time. Time only reveals all. If you only see a little bit, you are effectively walking through the dark, if you get to walk at all anywhere. Flickering shadows are not real.
Let some kings work a few weeks as a test at the Federal minimum wage and see how far they can walk to any job any where on an emptying stomach. How gut-wrenching does reality need to become to prove reality is not virtuality?
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 18, 2022

If your own house is not in order, you better keep your mouth shut!. Tha's a great recommendation for any one to follow.
If the folks in power want to open their eyes, and do something real for a change, a good start is reading this little report:
https://assets.wetransfer.net/documents/WeTransfer_Ideas_Report_2021.pdf
It's well written, brief and to the point. Has great presentation approach and hit's the message right home.
This is a great line by the CEO:
"We think they’re onto something—the fate of our future lies largely in how we behave as businesses."
My line:
People know how to behave if any one gives them an opportunity. Businesses don't so far into 2022. Something has to change based on Supreme Court and State Court legal process. The people know and understand the real message. A whole lot of leaders are just playing the opportunist games and ego trips to the max which of course keeps pushing every thing else down to the minimum of tolerances. Air pressure is kind of funny that way.
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Godfree Roberts Jun 18, 2022

China won the competition years ago. It now leads the world in science and technology, wealth, and education.

There are now more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, illiterate, and imprisoned citizens in America than in China.

China's infant mortality, 5.4 per thousand births is lower than America's 5.69 and Chinese children's healthy life expectancy is longer than American kids', and those kids will graduate high school three years ahead of ours.

The US is failing on all sorts of social indicators, not just falling life expectancy but also falling height (a proxy for the quality of diets among the young), educational attainment, teen births, crime rates. Hollywood is our big bulwark against the rest of the world realizing how far we’ve fallen.

In 2022, 56% of all Americans cannot produce a meager $1,000 as an emergency expense from their existing savings, CNBC reported; 1 in 10 US adults have gone hungry last December as a result of poverty, Forbes.com reported; Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy revealed that child poverty rate in the US stands at 17%, “one of the highest among developed countries”.
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vic lai Jun 17, 2022

The globally dominant Dutch Republic in the 17th century was challenged by Bourbon France at that time.
Finally, Britain caught up, and replaced those 2 countries.
Britain was in her heyday in the 19th century, and was challenged later by quickly united Germany.
The US eventually rose to global supremacy, and again replaced those 2 countries.
In the 21st century, the US is in turn being challenged by strongly reviving China.
---
It's said by an author that India will crop up to become the new global power in the future.
I personally think that the US dollar will be the last global hegemon currency in human history.
---
- vic lai Jun 17, 2022
  
  It's perhaps too early to say the US could lose the New Cold "Battle."
  Everything depends on what the US will be doing herself in the coming years.
  Instead of, or in addition to, preventing China from quickly catching up with her in this global Marathon Race, the US should much better run much faster herself.
  ---
  The coming non-trivial economic recession in the US sometime in the future, if any, probably the major collateral damage of the Fed's current strive to tame the inflation monster in the country, will create the best disinflationary or deflationary macroeconomic environment for the US to use MMT cum QEs once again to resume the national project of BUILD BACK BETTER, provided the Congress will be willing to relax massively the current Debt Ceiling currently imposed on the Federal Government.
  Provided the Federal Government's massive deficit spending then is really invested productively in the country's real economy and not (only) in the virtual asset market economy, the US will find it much easier to win this New Cold "War," and China and other countries can hardly overtake the US in this century's global Marathon Race.
  ---
  - vic lai Jun 19, 2022
    
    Many people have been talking about "friend-shoring" these days, but a similar phenomenon of "friend-endearing" in the US's government circles has been prevailing for many years.
    This regarded-as-normal widespread phenomenon means a hidden and continued deterioration of the country's highly-valued democratic system, and has kept hurting the continued overall competitiveness of the country in the coming years.
    ---
    With the exception of the recent pandemic-induced super-big spending by the well-intentioned Presidents in both parties and the Congress, in a relatively short period of time, thereby resuscitating the current inflation Monster in the US, in ordinary times the US Federal Government 's deficit spending has mostly been either
    (i) not big enough as a proportion of GDP, or
    (ii) spent on the wrong things (or, for those lucky people receiving the money, the "right" things).
    ---
    The Democratic administrations (like Bill Clinton's) tend to enact government surpluses, precipitating balance-sheet-recession-like economic recessions in the country in the future.
    The Republicans tend to deficit-spend on foreign regional wars, and perform tax cuts for the rich.
    As a result, growth is produced only to select economic sectors such as the country's military-industrial complex, and the financial and medical services, and so prosperity only goes to the rich segment of the population.
    ---
    The US Federal Government's deficit spending should mostly add to the country's constructive real economic expansion, like infrastructure, R&Ds, health care, schools, pensions, suitable targeted tax reliefs for businesses threatened by trade tariffs and pandemic, environmental protection, and struggling working families.
    Only those deficit spending can contribute to fair and rising overall economic prosperity of the country.
    In particular, the US needs another PPP-like technological revolution or breakthrough in the years after the coming countrywide economic recession (if any), resembling the semiconductor and internet revolutions which helped the US to defeat Japan, to be able to defeat China before the middle of this century.
    ---
    - vic lai Jun 19, 2022
      
      Again, while the US is actively talking about de-globalization, friend-shoring globalization, or re-shoring, the rest of the world is also, perhaps implicitly, talking about de-dollarization.
      ---
      The traditional role of the US dollar as the world's dominant form of international store of value, and global abode of future purchasing, lending and investing power, can no longer be taken for granted in the foreseeable future, because the current inflation-induced accelerating decline in the present and future real value of the US dollar, has rendered the foreigners' continued holding of (more) US treasuries now and in the future a fool's errand.
      ---
      So, trade-surplus countries like China will actively seek to use the US dollars they earn to hold much more real assets or other currencies than before, instead of mainly investing them in the US treasuries.
      Which means, much less US dollars will be repatriated back to the US, further bidding up the domestic interest rates in the US.
      Unless the US Federal Government raises unpopular taxes, or reduce its own expenditures, to reduce its own deficits and debts, the US Fed has to keep monetizing many of the Federal Government's deficits and debts in the future, through the help of Japan-like money-printing-financed yield curve control, thereby keeping reducing the precious metal content of their own coins.
      ---
      Which also means, the US can no longer rely on China's trade surpluses to help finance her expensive marine troops used to militarily encircle China in the Pacific Ocean.
      And also as a collateral damage, the global Eurodollar markets will also start to wither, due to the perennial lack of pristine US-dollar-denominated central government treasuries prevailing in these markets.
      ---
      If all the other countries fare even worse than the US at the same period of time, all these coin problems facing the US is not a serious one, at least relatively speaking.
      But, if one and only one special coin of a quickly rising foreign country has been able to maintain its real value now and in the long future, ......
      ---
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Mark Rosalbo Jun 17, 2022

16 times in history when the new rising power threatened the old ruling super power, the result was WAR 12 times. Not an optimistic picture.
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