A view of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors seal BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

美国衰退风险突现

坎布里奇—美国经济正在狂飙突进,高于趋势的GDP增长似乎会在2018年和2019年继续。尽管扩张已经进入第九年,但并没有会立即停下来的迹象。

经济扩张的最大风险是金融业的脆弱性。十年来过度的低利率让资产价格涨到了极端高度。十年期美国国债真实收益率接近于零。标准普尔500指数市盈率比历史平均值高出70%左右。如果这些和其他资产价格回归历史标准,投资者将损失超过10万亿美元,导致消费支出和商业投资下降。

经济活动还可能因为朝鲜国际冲突、突出的贸易纠纷,或美国国内的政治事件而减速。

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