为什么奥巴马会赢?

普林斯顿—比尔·克林顿1992年竞选首席战略顾问詹姆斯·卡维尔(James Carville)有句名言,道出了赢得大选的一点现成内幕智慧:“经济最重要,笨蛋。”在任者将赢得连任,如果经济前景看好的话;在任者将不堪一击——就像老布什那样——如果世道艰难的话。事实上,在放眼欧洲——法国、希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙还有英国莫不如此——政府都因为发生了无力解决的危机而该换了门庭。

从这个标准衡量,奥巴马总统目前应该是连任希望渺茫。根据美国人口普查数据,2011年,家庭收入连续第四年下降。失业率一直居高不下,2009年的7870亿美元刺激计划也没能让失业率有所改善;而房价尽管缓慢地开始复苏,但对2008年高峰水平仍然望尘莫及。

尽管如此,奥巴马似乎仍将在11月获得连任。一个原因是没有可靠的方法能够立刻判断其经济表现,而奥巴马所继承的烂摊子——他实在重大经济和金融灾难中入主白宫的——显然对经济现状有着巨大影响。小布什总统和布朗首相对金融危机的责任显然比替他们收拾残局的的继任者要大得多。

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