Langsames Zinswachstum in den USA

LONDON – In den kommenden Tagen werden Anleger die jüngste Erklärung der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve wie üblich in allen Einzelheiten analysieren, um Anhaltspunkte dafür zu finden, wann und wie rasch die Zinssätze angehoben werden. Bemerkenswert ist, dass der Ausdruck „geduldig“ in dem Papier nicht aufscheint und die Fed signalisiert, dass man den Leitzins möglicherweise schon im Juni anheben könnte. Allerdings ist die spezielle Wortwahl weniger aufschlussreich, als der Kontext in dem die Erklärung veröffentlicht wird.

Tatsächlich war die Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Geldpolitik in den Vereinigten Staaten dieses Jahr die Hauptursache der Volatilität auf den Finanzmärkten. Schließlich haben die möglichen Auswirkungen von Zinserhöhungen auf der US-Zinsstrukturkurve großen Einfluss auf die Preisgestaltung aller Vermögenswerte weltweit.

Allerdings legen drei unterschiedliche Faktoren nahe, dass die Anleger das Risiko einer Anpassung der Zinskurve überbewerten. Erstens werden wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen die Fed aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach veranlassen, bei der Anhebung der Zinssätze Vorsicht walten zu lassen. Zweitens: Selbst wenn die Fed rasch agieren sollte, wird der Renditehunger der Anleger für eine Verankerung der Erträge sorgen. Und drittens werden die technischen Merkmale des Marktes eine starke Nachfrage nach kurzfristigen US-Anleihen, den Treasury Bills, gewährleisten.

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