缓慢增长的美国利率

发自伦敦——跟以往一样,美国联邦储备委员会的新政策声明将在未来一段时间被各界抽丝剥茧,细细咀嚼,因为投资者希望知道利率将在何时及以何种速度提升。值得注意的是,“保持耐心”这个词并没有出现,而美联储已经暗示最快可能在6月提高基准利率。但这一具体措辞所包含的含义远比刚公布的声明文本要少。

事实上,美国货币政策的不确定性一直是今年金融市场波动的主要驱动力。毕竟,加息对美国收益率曲线的潜在效应会对全球所有资产的价格产生重大影响。

但三项因素表明投资者其实是对曲线重新定价的风险过分在意了。首先,经济发展将有可能令美联储在进入加息程序时表现谨慎。其次,即使美联储迅速行动,投资者对收益回报的渴求将锁定收益。第三,市场的技术特征必定会产生对美国国债的强劲需求。

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