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请停止夸大通胀威胁

发自伯克利—美国当前的宏观经济状况令我回想起了2014年9月。当时美国失业率降到了6%以下,同时一大批评论员向我们保证通胀很快就会如菲利普斯曲线所预测的那样上升。当然,这一论点的必然推论是美联储应当迅速着手实施货币政策正常化,缩小货币基础,并将利率提高到原本的“正常”范围。

时至今日,美国的失业率比我们都确信经济已经达到“自然”失业率时的水平还低了2.5个百分点。当我在1990年代担任助理教授时,经验告诉我们如此低的失业率会使每年的通胀率增加1.3个百分点。如果今年的通货膨胀率为2%,那么明年通胀率则为3.3%。如果失业率能保持在同样的总体水平,那么第二年的通货膨胀率将是4.6%,第二年的通货膨胀率将是5.9%。

但是这一旧经验已经不再适用。在接下来的几年中,美国的通胀率始终保持在每年2%左右,我们的货币政策选择也应当回应这一事实。

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